Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments
International audience The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2019
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032/document https://hal.science/hal-03104032/file/cp-15-661-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 |
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ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-03104032v1 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
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ftuniversailles |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Klein, François Abram, Nerilie Curran, Mark Goosse, Hugues Goursaud, Sentia Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Moy, Andrew Neukom, Raphael Orsi, Anaïs Sjolte, Jesper Steiger, Nathan Stenni, Barbara Werner, Martin Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction ... |
author2 |
Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Research School of Earth Sciences ANU, Canberra (RSES) ANU College of Science Canberra Australian National University (ANU)-Australian National University (ANU) Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ) Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC) Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) Universität Bern / University of Bern (UNIBE) Skane University Hospital Lund Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York University of Ca’ Foscari Venice, Italy Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Klein, François Abram, Nerilie Curran, Mark Goosse, Hugues Goursaud, Sentia Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Moy, Andrew Neukom, Raphael Orsi, Anaïs Sjolte, Jesper Steiger, Nathan Stenni, Barbara Werner, Martin |
author_facet |
Klein, François Abram, Nerilie Curran, Mark Goosse, Hugues Goursaud, Sentia Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Moy, Andrew Neukom, Raphael Orsi, Anaïs Sjolte, Jesper Steiger, Nathan Stenni, Barbara Werner, Martin |
author_sort |
Klein, François |
title |
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
title_short |
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
title_full |
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
title_sort |
assessing the robustness of antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032/document https://hal.science/hal-03104032/file/cp-15-661-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03104032 Climate of the Past, 2019, 15 (2), pp.661-684. ⟨10.5194/CP-15-661-2019⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032/document https://hal.science/hal-03104032/file/cp-15-661-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
661 |
op_container_end_page |
684 |
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1797574068793245696 |
spelling |
ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-03104032v1 2024-04-28T08:02:49+00:00 Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments Klein, François Abram, Nerilie Curran, Mark Goosse, Hugues Goursaud, Sentia Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Moy, Andrew Neukom, Raphael Orsi, Anaïs Sjolte, Jesper Steiger, Nathan Stenni, Barbara Werner, Martin Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research Louvain (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Research School of Earth Sciences ANU, Canberra (RSES) ANU College of Science Canberra Australian National University (ANU)-Australian National University (ANU) Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ) Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC) Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) Universität Bern / University of Bern (UNIBE) Skane University Hospital Lund Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York University of Ca’ Foscari Venice, Italy Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association 2019 https://hal.science/hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032/document https://hal.science/hal-03104032/file/cp-15-661-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032 https://hal.science/hal-03104032/document https://hal.science/hal-03104032/file/cp-15-661-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03104032 Climate of the Past, 2019, 15 (2), pp.661-684. ⟨10.5194/CP-15-661-2019⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.5194/CP-15-661-2019 2024-04-11T00:03:41Z International audience The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Climate of the Past 15 2 661 684 |