Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget
International audience Based on the 2019 assessment of the Global Carbon Project, the ocean took up on average, 2.5 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 or 23 ± 5% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the decade 2009–2018. This sink estimate is based on simulation results from global ocean biogeochemical models...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149/document https://hal.science/hal-03011149/file/fmars-07-571720.pdf https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 |
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ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-03011149v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
op_collection_id |
ftuniversailles |
language |
English |
topic |
ocean carbon uptake anthropogenic CO2 ocean carbon cycle model evaluation riverine carbon flux variability of the ocean carbon sink seasonal cycle [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
ocean carbon uptake anthropogenic CO2 ocean carbon cycle model evaluation riverine carbon flux variability of the ocean carbon sink seasonal cycle [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Hauck, Judith Zeising, Moritz Le Quéré, Corinne Gruber, Nicolas Bakker, Dorothee Bopp, Laurent Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang Gürses, Özgür Ilyina, Tatiana Landschützer, Peter Lenton, Andrew Resplandy, Laure Rödenbeck, Christian Schwinger, Jörg Séférian, Roland Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
topic_facet |
ocean carbon uptake anthropogenic CO2 ocean carbon cycle model evaluation riverine carbon flux variability of the ocean carbon sink seasonal cycle [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience Based on the 2019 assessment of the Global Carbon Project, the ocean took up on average, 2.5 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 or 23 ± 5% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the decade 2009–2018. This sink estimate is based on simulation results from global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and is compared to data-products based on observations of surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) accounting for the outgassing of river-derived CO2. Here we evaluate the GOBM simulations by comparing the simulated surface ocean pCO2 to observations. Based on this comparison, the simulations are well-suited for quantifying the global ocean carbon sink on the time-scale of the annual mean and its multi-decadal trend (RMSE <20 μatm), as well as on the time-scale of multi-year variability (RMSE <10 μatm), despite the large model-data mismatch on the seasonal time-scale (RMSE of 20–80 μatm). Biases in GOBMs have a small effect on the global mean ocean sink (0.05 PgC yr−1), but need to be addressed to improve the regional budgets and model-data comparison. Accounting for non-mapped areas in the data-products reduces their spread as measured by the standard deviation by a third. There is growing evidence and consistency among methods with regard to the patterns of the multi-year variability of the ocean carbon sink, with a global stagnation in the 1990s and an extra-tropical strengthening in the 2000s. GOBMs and data-products point consistently to a shift from a tropical CO2 source to a CO2 sink in recent years. On average, the GOBMs reveal less variations in the sink than the data-based products. Despite the reasonable simulation of surface ocean pCO2 by the GOBMs, there are discrepancies between the resulting sink estimate from GOBMs and data-products. These discrepancies are within the uncertainty of the river flux adjustment, increase over time, and largely stem from the Southern Ocean. Progress in our understanding of the global ocean carbon sink necessitates significant advancement in modeling and ... |
author2 |
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association University of East Anglia Norwich (UEA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra (CSIRO) Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton University (PEI) Princeton University Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-16-CE01-0014,SOBUMS,Comprendre la réponse du cycle du carbone dans l'océan austral au stress climatique(2016) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hauck, Judith Zeising, Moritz Le Quéré, Corinne Gruber, Nicolas Bakker, Dorothee Bopp, Laurent Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang Gürses, Özgür Ilyina, Tatiana Landschützer, Peter Lenton, Andrew Resplandy, Laure Rödenbeck, Christian Schwinger, Jörg Séférian, Roland |
author_facet |
Hauck, Judith Zeising, Moritz Le Quéré, Corinne Gruber, Nicolas Bakker, Dorothee Bopp, Laurent Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang Gürses, Özgür Ilyina, Tatiana Landschützer, Peter Lenton, Andrew Resplandy, Laure Rödenbeck, Christian Schwinger, Jörg Séférian, Roland |
author_sort |
Hauck, Judith |
title |
Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
title_short |
Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
title_full |
Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
title_fullStr |
Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget |
title_sort |
consistency and challenges in the ocean carbon sink estimate for the global carbon budget |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149/document https://hal.science/hal-03011149/file/fmars-07-571720.pdf https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-03011149 Frontiers in Marine Science, 2020, 7, pp.571720. ⟨10.3389/fmars.2020.571720⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149/document https://hal.science/hal-03011149/file/fmars-07-571720.pdf doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
7 |
_version_ |
1799467431363608576 |
spelling |
ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-03011149v1 2024-05-19T07:49:01+00:00 Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget Hauck, Judith Zeising, Moritz Le Quéré, Corinne Gruber, Nicolas Bakker, Dorothee Bopp, Laurent Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang Gürses, Özgür Ilyina, Tatiana Landschützer, Peter Lenton, Andrew Resplandy, Laure Rödenbeck, Christian Schwinger, Jörg Séférian, Roland Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association University of East Anglia Norwich (UEA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Canberra (CSIRO) Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton University (PEI) Princeton University Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) ANR-16-CE01-0014,SOBUMS,Comprendre la réponse du cycle du carbone dans l'océan austral au stress climatique(2016) 2020 https://hal.science/hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149/document https://hal.science/hal-03011149/file/fmars-07-571720.pdf https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 en eng HAL CCSD Frontiers Media info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149 https://hal.science/hal-03011149/document https://hal.science/hal-03011149/file/fmars-07-571720.pdf doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-03011149 Frontiers in Marine Science, 2020, 7, pp.571720. ⟨10.3389/fmars.2020.571720⟩ ocean carbon uptake anthropogenic CO2 ocean carbon cycle model evaluation riverine carbon flux variability of the ocean carbon sink seasonal cycle [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720 2024-04-25T00:26:17Z International audience Based on the 2019 assessment of the Global Carbon Project, the ocean took up on average, 2.5 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 or 23 ± 5% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the decade 2009–2018. This sink estimate is based on simulation results from global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and is compared to data-products based on observations of surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) accounting for the outgassing of river-derived CO2. Here we evaluate the GOBM simulations by comparing the simulated surface ocean pCO2 to observations. Based on this comparison, the simulations are well-suited for quantifying the global ocean carbon sink on the time-scale of the annual mean and its multi-decadal trend (RMSE <20 μatm), as well as on the time-scale of multi-year variability (RMSE <10 μatm), despite the large model-data mismatch on the seasonal time-scale (RMSE of 20–80 μatm). Biases in GOBMs have a small effect on the global mean ocean sink (0.05 PgC yr−1), but need to be addressed to improve the regional budgets and model-data comparison. Accounting for non-mapped areas in the data-products reduces their spread as measured by the standard deviation by a third. There is growing evidence and consistency among methods with regard to the patterns of the multi-year variability of the ocean carbon sink, with a global stagnation in the 1990s and an extra-tropical strengthening in the 2000s. GOBMs and data-products point consistently to a shift from a tropical CO2 source to a CO2 sink in recent years. On average, the GOBMs reveal less variations in the sink than the data-based products. Despite the reasonable simulation of surface ocean pCO2 by the GOBMs, there are discrepancies between the resulting sink estimate from GOBMs and data-products. These discrepancies are within the uncertainty of the river flux adjustment, increase over time, and largely stem from the Southern Ocean. Progress in our understanding of the global ocean carbon sink necessitates significant advancement in modeling and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Frontiers in Marine Science 7 |