Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation
International audience Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in bio-spheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when f...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2014
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926/document https://hal.science/hal-02927926/file/esd-5-197-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 |
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Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Nishina, K. Ito, A. Beerling, D. Cadule, P. Ciais, Philippe Clark, D. Falloon, P. Friend, A. Kahana, R. Kato, E. Keribin, R. Lucht, W. Lomas, M. Rademacher, T. Pavlick, R. Schaphoff, S. Vuichard, N. Warszawaski, L. Yokohata, T. Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in bio-spheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate projections from four representative-concentration-pathways (RCPs)-based atmospheric concentration scenarios. The goal was to specify calculated uncertainty in global SOC stock projections from global and regional perspectives and give insight to the improvement of SOC-relevant processes in biome models. SOC stocks among the biome models varied from 1090 to 2650 Pg C even in historical periods (ca. 2000). In a higher forcing scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), inconsistent estimates of impact on the total SOC (2099-2000) were obtained from different biome model simulations, ranging from a net sink of 347 Pg C to a net source of 122 Pg C. In all models, the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the RCP8.5 scenario considerably contributed to carbon accumulation in SOC. However, magnitudes varied from 93 to 264 Pg C by the end of the 21st century across biome models. Using the time-series data of total global SOC simulated by each biome model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the global SOC stock to global mean temperature and global precipitation anomalies (T and P respectively) in each biome model using a state-space model. This analysis suggests that T explained global SOC stock changes in most models with a resolution of 1-2 • C, and the magnitude of global SOC decomposition from a 2 • C rise ranged from almost 0 to 3.53 Pg C yr −1 among the biome models. However, P had a negligible impact on change in the global SOC changes. Spatial heterogeneity was evident and inconsistent among the biome models, especially in boreal to arctic regions. Our study reveals considerable climate uncertainty in SOC decomposition responses to climate and CO 2 change among biome models. Further research is required to ... |
author2 |
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford (CEH) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Cambridge UK (CAM) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nishina, K. Ito, A. Beerling, D. Cadule, P. Ciais, Philippe Clark, D. Falloon, P. Friend, A. Kahana, R. Kato, E. Keribin, R. Lucht, W. Lomas, M. Rademacher, T. Pavlick, R. Schaphoff, S. Vuichard, N. Warszawaski, L. Yokohata, T. |
author_facet |
Nishina, K. Ito, A. Beerling, D. Cadule, P. Ciais, Philippe Clark, D. Falloon, P. Friend, A. Kahana, R. Kato, E. Keribin, R. Lucht, W. Lomas, M. Rademacher, T. Pavlick, R. Schaphoff, S. Vuichard, N. Warszawaski, L. Yokohata, T. |
author_sort |
Nishina, K. |
title |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_short |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_full |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_sort |
quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926/document https://hal.science/hal-02927926/file/esd-5-197-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-02927926 Earth System Dynamics, 2014, 5 (1), pp.197-209. ⟨10.5194/esd-5-197-2014⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926/document https://hal.science/hal-02927926/file/esd-5-197-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
197 |
op_container_end_page |
209 |
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1797579230542823424 |
spelling |
ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-02927926v1 2024-04-28T08:12:20+00:00 Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation Nishina, K. Ito, A. Beerling, D. Cadule, P. Ciais, Philippe Clark, D. Falloon, P. Friend, A. Kahana, R. Kato, E. Keribin, R. Lucht, W. Lomas, M. Rademacher, T. Pavlick, R. Schaphoff, S. Vuichard, N. Warszawaski, L. Yokohata, T. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford (CEH) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Cambridge UK (CAM) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) 2014 https://hal.science/hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926/document https://hal.science/hal-02927926/file/esd-5-197-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926 https://hal.science/hal-02927926/document https://hal.science/hal-02927926/file/esd-5-197-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-02927926 Earth System Dynamics, 2014, 5 (1), pp.197-209. ⟨10.5194/esd-5-197-2014⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 2024-04-04T17:36:17Z International audience Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in bio-spheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate projections from four representative-concentration-pathways (RCPs)-based atmospheric concentration scenarios. The goal was to specify calculated uncertainty in global SOC stock projections from global and regional perspectives and give insight to the improvement of SOC-relevant processes in biome models. SOC stocks among the biome models varied from 1090 to 2650 Pg C even in historical periods (ca. 2000). In a higher forcing scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), inconsistent estimates of impact on the total SOC (2099-2000) were obtained from different biome model simulations, ranging from a net sink of 347 Pg C to a net source of 122 Pg C. In all models, the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the RCP8.5 scenario considerably contributed to carbon accumulation in SOC. However, magnitudes varied from 93 to 264 Pg C by the end of the 21st century across biome models. Using the time-series data of total global SOC simulated by each biome model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the global SOC stock to global mean temperature and global precipitation anomalies (T and P respectively) in each biome model using a state-space model. This analysis suggests that T explained global SOC stock changes in most models with a resolution of 1-2 • C, and the magnitude of global SOC decomposition from a 2 • C rise ranged from almost 0 to 3.53 Pg C yr −1 among the biome models. However, P had a negligible impact on change in the global SOC changes. Spatial heterogeneity was evident and inconsistent among the biome models, especially in boreal to arctic regions. Our study reveals considerable climate uncertainty in SOC decomposition responses to climate and CO 2 change among biome models. Further research is required to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Earth System Dynamics 5 1 197 209 |