Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAU International audience A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this...

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Published in:Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Main Authors: Mcguire, A.D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D.M., Clein, J.S., Xia, J., Beer, C., Burke, E., Chen, G., Chen, X., Delire, C., Jafarov, E., Macdougall, A., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, Shuang, Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T.J., Ciais, Philippe, Decharme, B., Hayes, D.J., Ekici, A., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D.P., Luo, Y., Miller, P.A., Moore, J.C., Romanovsky, V., Schaedel, C., Schaefer, K., Schuur, E.A.G., Smith, Barry, Sueyoshi, T., Zhuang, Q
Other Authors: Geophysical Institute Fairbanks, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER COLORADO USA, Institute of Arctic Biology, EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI CHN, ACES STOCKHOLM SWE, Stockholm University, MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTRE EXETER GBR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, UNIVERSITY OF WAHINGTON SEATTLE USA, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR), University of Colorado Boulder, SCHOOL OF EARTH AND OCEAN SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA BRITISH COLUMBIA CAN, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH POTSDAM DEU, Beijing Normal University (BNU), JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY YOKOHAMA JPN, Skane University Hospital Lund, SCHOOL OF EARTH AND SPACE EXPLORATION ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY TEMPE USA, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Hydrologie-Hydraulique (UR HHLY), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES USA, DEPARTMENT OF MICROBIOLOGY AND PLANT BIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA NORMAN USA, NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY FLAGSTAFF USA, NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER USA, Purdue University West Lafayette
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: HAL CCSD 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/document
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/file/McGuire_GlobalBiogeochemicaCycles2016.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405
id ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-02605430v1
record_format openpolar
institution Open Polar
collection Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ
op_collection_id ftuniversailles
language English
topic PERMAFROST
PERMAFROST MODELLING
LAND-SURFACE MODELS
GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION
CO2-ENHANCEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
MODEL SENSITIVITY
CARBON DYNAMICS
[SDE]Environmental Sciences
spellingShingle PERMAFROST
PERMAFROST MODELLING
LAND-SURFACE MODELS
GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION
CO2-ENHANCEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
MODEL SENSITIVITY
CARBON DYNAMICS
[SDE]Environmental Sciences
Mcguire, A.D.
Koven, C.
Lawrence, D.M.
Clein, J.S.
Xia, J.
Beer, C.
Burke, E.
Chen, G.
Chen, X.
Delire, C.
Jafarov, E.
Macdougall, A.
Marchenko, S.
Nicolsky, D.
Peng, Shuang
Rinke, A.
Saito, K.
Zhang, W.
Alkama, R.
Bohn, T.J.
Ciais, Philippe
Decharme, B.
Hayes, D.J.
Ekici, A.
Gouttevin, I.
Hajima, T.
Ji, D.
Krinner, G.
Lettenmaier, D.P.
Luo, Y.
Miller, P.A.
Moore, J.C.
Romanovsky, V.
Schaedel, C.
Schaefer, K.
Schuur, E.A.G.
Smith, Barry
Sueyoshi, T.
Zhuang, Q
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
topic_facet PERMAFROST
PERMAFROST MODELLING
LAND-SURFACE MODELS
GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION
CO2-ENHANCEMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
MODEL SENSITIVITY
CARBON DYNAMICS
[SDE]Environmental Sciences
description [Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAU International audience A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to ...
author2 Geophysical Institute Fairbanks
University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)
LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA USA
Partenaires IRSTEA
Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)
NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER COLORADO USA
Institute of Arctic Biology
EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI CHN
ACES STOCKHOLM SWE
Stockholm University
MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTRE EXETER GBR
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge (ORNL)
UT-Battelle, LLC
UNIVERSITY OF WAHINGTON SEATTLE USA
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM)
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP)
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3)
Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3)
Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR)
University of Colorado Boulder
SCHOOL OF EARTH AND OCEAN SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA BRITISH COLUMBIA CAN
Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE)
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG )
Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE)
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)
ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH POTSDAM DEU
Beijing Normal University (BNU)
JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY YOKOHAMA JPN
Skane University Hospital Lund
SCHOOL OF EARTH AND SPACE EXPLORATION ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY TEMPE USA
ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC)
Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
Hydrologie-Hydraulique (UR HHLY)
Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES USA
DEPARTMENT OF MICROBIOLOGY AND PLANT BIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA NORMAN USA
NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY FLAGSTAFF USA
NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER USA
Purdue University West Lafayette
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Mcguire, A.D.
Koven, C.
Lawrence, D.M.
Clein, J.S.
Xia, J.
Beer, C.
Burke, E.
Chen, G.
Chen, X.
Delire, C.
Jafarov, E.
Macdougall, A.
Marchenko, S.
Nicolsky, D.
Peng, Shuang
Rinke, A.
Saito, K.
Zhang, W.
Alkama, R.
Bohn, T.J.
Ciais, Philippe
Decharme, B.
Hayes, D.J.
Ekici, A.
Gouttevin, I.
Hajima, T.
Ji, D.
Krinner, G.
Lettenmaier, D.P.
Luo, Y.
Miller, P.A.
Moore, J.C.
Romanovsky, V.
Schaedel, C.
Schaefer, K.
Schuur, E.A.G.
Smith, Barry
Sueyoshi, T.
Zhuang, Q
author_facet Mcguire, A.D.
Koven, C.
Lawrence, D.M.
Clein, J.S.
Xia, J.
Beer, C.
Burke, E.
Chen, G.
Chen, X.
Delire, C.
Jafarov, E.
Macdougall, A.
Marchenko, S.
Nicolsky, D.
Peng, Shuang
Rinke, A.
Saito, K.
Zhang, W.
Alkama, R.
Bohn, T.J.
Ciais, Philippe
Decharme, B.
Hayes, D.J.
Ekici, A.
Gouttevin, I.
Hajima, T.
Ji, D.
Krinner, G.
Lettenmaier, D.P.
Luo, Y.
Miller, P.A.
Moore, J.C.
Romanovsky, V.
Schaedel, C.
Schaefer, K.
Schuur, E.A.G.
Smith, Barry
Sueyoshi, T.
Zhuang, Q
author_sort Mcguire, A.D.
title Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
title_short Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
title_full Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
title_fullStr Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
title_full_unstemmed Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
title_sort variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
publisher HAL CCSD
publishDate 2016
url https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/document
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/file/McGuire_GlobalBiogeochemicaCycles2016.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405
genre permafrost
genre_facet permafrost
op_source ISSN: 0886-6236
EISSN: 1944-8224
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2016, 30 (7), pp.1015-1037. ⟨10.1002/2016GB005405⟩
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spelling ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-02605430v1 2024-04-28T08:35:28+00:00 Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 Variabilité de la sensibilité inter-modèles du permafrost et du cycle du carbone dans la zone de permafrost boréal (1960-2009) Mcguire, A.D. Koven, C. Lawrence, D.M. Clein, J.S. Xia, J. Beer, C. Burke, E. Chen, G. Chen, X. Delire, C. Jafarov, E. Macdougall, A. Marchenko, S. Nicolsky, D. Peng, Shuang Rinke, A. Saito, K. Zhang, W. Alkama, R. Bohn, T.J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, B. Hayes, D.J. Ekici, A. Gouttevin, I. Hajima, T. Ji, D. Krinner, G. Lettenmaier, D.P. Luo, Y. Miller, P.A. Moore, J.C. Romanovsky, V. Schaedel, C. Schaefer, K. Schuur, E.A.G. Smith, Barry Sueyoshi, T. Zhuang, Q Geophysical Institute Fairbanks University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA USA Partenaires IRSTEA Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER COLORADO USA Institute of Arctic Biology EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI CHN ACES STOCKHOLM SWE Stockholm University MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTRE EXETER GBR Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge (ORNL) UT-Battelle, LLC UNIVERSITY OF WAHINGTON SEATTLE USA Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR) University of Colorado Boulder SCHOOL OF EARTH AND OCEAN SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA BRITISH COLUMBIA CAN Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ) Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH POTSDAM DEU Beijing Normal University (BNU) JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY YOKOHAMA JPN Skane University Hospital Lund SCHOOL OF EARTH AND SPACE EXPLORATION ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY TEMPE USA ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Hydrologie-Hydraulique (UR HHLY) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES USA DEPARTMENT OF MICROBIOLOGY AND PLANT BIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA NORMAN USA NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY FLAGSTAFF USA NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER USA Purdue University West Lafayette 2016 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/file/McGuire_GlobalBiogeochemicaCycles2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2016GB005405 hal-02605430 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/file/McGuire_GlobalBiogeochemicaCycles2016.pdf doi:10.1002/2016GB005405 IRSTEA: PUB00052560 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0886-6236 EISSN: 1944-8224 Global Biogeochemical Cycles https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430 Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2016, 30 (7), pp.1015-1037. ⟨10.1002/2016GB005405⟩ PERMAFROST PERMAFROST MODELLING LAND-SURFACE MODELS GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION CO2-ENHANCEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE MODEL SENSITIVITY CARBON DYNAMICS [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 2024-04-11T00:05:18Z [Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAU International audience A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30 7 1015 1037