Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections
International audience In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to low-end sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minim...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970/document https://hal.science/hal-02380970/file/hal-02380970.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071507 |
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ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-02380970v1 2024-05-19T07:29:22+00:00 Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections Le Cozannet, Gonéri Thiéblemont, Rémi Rohmer, Jeremy Idier, Déborah Manceau, Jean-Charles Quique, Robin Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ANR-17-CE03-0001,DELTA,Les deltas sous l'impact du changement global(2017) 2019 https://hal.science/hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970/document https://hal.science/hal-02380970/file/hal-02380970.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071507 en eng HAL CCSD MDPI info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/w11071507 hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970/document https://hal.science/hal-02380970/file/hal-02380970.pdf doi:10.3390/w11071507 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2073-4441 Water https://hal.science/hal-02380970 Water, 2019, 11, ⟨10.3390/w11071507⟩ RISE CLIMATE GREENLAND UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS GLACIERS MODEL sea-level rise projections probabilistic ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET VERTICAL LAND MOTION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071507 2024-05-02T00:03:51Z International audience In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to low-end sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minimum adaptation needs. Here, we provide global and regional probabilistic sea-level projections using conservative projections of glaciers and ice-sheets melting and a selection of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) delivering moderate thermal expansion. Our low-end sea-level projections are higher than previously estimated because they rely on modeling outcomes only, and do not add any expert judgement, aiming essentially at delivering more realistic upper tails. While there are good reasons to believe that our projections are excessively optimistic, they can be used as low-end sea-level projections in order to inform users with low aversion to uncertainty. Our low-end sea-level projection exceeds 0.5 m along most inhabited coasts by 2100 for business as usual greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is relevant for adaptation practitioners as long as efficient climate change mitigation policies are not implemented. This means that without efficient climate mitigation, an acceleration of sea-level rise can hardly be avoided during the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Water 11 7 1507 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
op_collection_id |
ftuniversailles |
language |
English |
topic |
RISE CLIMATE GREENLAND UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS GLACIERS MODEL sea-level rise projections probabilistic ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET VERTICAL LAND MOTION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology |
spellingShingle |
RISE CLIMATE GREENLAND UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS GLACIERS MODEL sea-level rise projections probabilistic ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET VERTICAL LAND MOTION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology Le Cozannet, Gonéri Thiéblemont, Rémi Rohmer, Jeremy Idier, Déborah Manceau, Jean-Charles Quique, Robin Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
topic_facet |
RISE CLIMATE GREENLAND UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS GLACIERS MODEL sea-level rise projections probabilistic ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET VERTICAL LAND MOTION SURFACE MASS-BALANCE [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology |
description |
International audience In the area of sea-level rise, recent research has focused on assessing either likely or high end future sea levels, but less attention has been given to low-end sea-level projections, exploring best-case potential sea-level changes and providing the basis for estimating minimum adaptation needs. Here, we provide global and regional probabilistic sea-level projections using conservative projections of glaciers and ice-sheets melting and a selection of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) delivering moderate thermal expansion. Our low-end sea-level projections are higher than previously estimated because they rely on modeling outcomes only, and do not add any expert judgement, aiming essentially at delivering more realistic upper tails. While there are good reasons to believe that our projections are excessively optimistic, they can be used as low-end sea-level projections in order to inform users with low aversion to uncertainty. Our low-end sea-level projection exceeds 0.5 m along most inhabited coasts by 2100 for business as usual greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5), which is relevant for adaptation practitioners as long as efficient climate change mitigation policies are not implemented. This means that without efficient climate mitigation, an acceleration of sea-level rise can hardly be avoided during the 21st century. |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) ANR-17-CE03-0001,DELTA,Les deltas sous l'impact du changement global(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Thiéblemont, Rémi Rohmer, Jeremy Idier, Déborah Manceau, Jean-Charles Quique, Robin |
author_facet |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Thiéblemont, Rémi Rohmer, Jeremy Idier, Déborah Manceau, Jean-Charles Quique, Robin |
author_sort |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
title |
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
title_short |
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
title_full |
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
title_fullStr |
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections |
title_sort |
low-end probabilistic sea-level projections |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970/document https://hal.science/hal-02380970/file/hal-02380970.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071507 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 2073-4441 Water https://hal.science/hal-02380970 Water, 2019, 11, ⟨10.3390/w11071507⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/w11071507 hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970 https://hal.science/hal-02380970/document https://hal.science/hal-02380970/file/hal-02380970.pdf doi:10.3390/w11071507 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071507 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1507 |
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1799478821592760320 |