Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century
International audience How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO$_2$ and climate change is constrained by observation...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Main Authors: | , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02044904 https://hal.science/hal-02044904/document https://hal.science/hal-02044904/file/Kwiatkowski_Orr_2017_OA.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
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ftuniversailles |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Kwiatkowski, Lester Orr, James C. Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO$_2$ and climate change is constrained by observations and models, little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality, particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario. During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 $\pm$ 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H$^+$ ] was amplified by 81 $\pm$ 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state ($\Omega _{arag}$) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO$_2$ and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H$^+$ ] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining $\Omega _{arag}$ are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010) European Project: 312979,EC:FP7:INFRA,FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1,IS-ENES2(2013) European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014) European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kwiatkowski, Lester Orr, James C. |
author_facet |
Kwiatkowski, Lester Orr, James C. |
author_sort |
Kwiatkowski, Lester |
title |
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
title_short |
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
title_full |
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
title_fullStr |
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
title_sort |
diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02044904 https://hal.science/hal-02044904/document https://hal.science/hal-02044904/file/Kwiatkowski_Orr_2017_OA.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
ISSN: 1758-678X EISSN: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change https://hal.science/hal-02044904 Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8 (2), pp.141-145. ⟨10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0⟩ |
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op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
141 |
op_container_end_page |
145 |
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1797591284364345344 |
spelling |
ftuniversailles:oai:HAL:hal-02044904v1 2024-04-28T08:34:42+00:00 Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century Kwiatkowski, Lester Orr, James C. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010) European Project: 312979,EC:FP7:INFRA,FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1,IS-ENES2(2013) European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014) European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015) 2018-02 https://hal.science/hal-02044904 https://hal.science/hal-02044904/document https://hal.science/hal-02044904/file/Kwiatkowski_Orr_2017_OA.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/312979/EU/Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2/IS-ENES2 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU/Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society/IMBALANCE-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//641816/EU/Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach/CRESCENDO hal-02044904 https://hal.science/hal-02044904 https://hal.science/hal-02044904/document https://hal.science/hal-02044904/file/Kwiatkowski_Orr_2017_OA.pdf doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 WOS: WOS:000423842400016 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1758-678X EISSN: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change https://hal.science/hal-02044904 Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8 (2), pp.141-145. ⟨10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftuniversailles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0 2024-04-04T17:38:15Z International audience How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO$_2$ and climate change is constrained by observations and models, little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality, particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario. During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 $\pm$ 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H$^+$ ] was amplified by 81 $\pm$ 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state ($\Omega _{arag}$) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO$_2$ and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H$^+$ ] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining $\Omega _{arag}$ are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ Nature Climate Change 8 2 141 145 |