A comparative study of the major sudden stratospheric warmings in the Arctic winters 2003/2004-2009/2010

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Kuttippurath, Jayanarayanan, Nikulin, G.
• Other Authors: STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2012
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00678622; https://hal.science/hal-00678622/document; https://hal.science/hal-00678622/file/acp-12-8115-2012.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-8115-2012

We present an analysis of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Arctic winters 2003/04-2009/10. There were 6 major SSWs (major warmings [MWs]) in 6 out of the 7 winters, in which the MWs of 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2008/09 were in January and those of 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2009/10 were in February. Although the winter 2009/10 was relatively cold from mid-December to mid-January, strong wave 1 activity led to a MW in early February, for which the largest momentum flux among the winters was estimated at 60° N/10 hPa, about 450 m2 s−2. The strongest MW, however, was observed in 2008/09 and the weakest in 2006/07. The MW in 2008/09 was triggered by intense wave 2 activity and was a vortex split event. In contrast, strong wave 1 activity led to the MWs of other winters and were vortex displacement events. Large amounts of Eliassen-Palm (EP) and wave 1/2 EP fluxes (about 2-4 ×105 kg s−2) are estimated shortly before the MWs at 100 hPa averaged over 45-75° N in all winters, suggesting profound tropospheric forcing for the MWs. We observe an increase in the occurrence of MWs (~1.1 MWs/winter) in recent years (1998/99-2009/10), as there were 13 MWs in the 12 Arctic winters, although the long-term average (1957/58-2009/10) of the frequency stays around its historical value (~0.7 MWs/winter), consistent with the findings of previous studies. An analysis of the chemical ozone loss in the past 17 Arctic winters (1993/94-2009/10) suggests that the loss is inversely proportional to the intensity and timing of MWs in each winter, where early (December-January) MWs lead to minimal ozone loss. Therefore, this high frequency of MWs in recent Arctic winters has significant implications for stratospheric ozone trends in the northern hemisphere.