Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced couple...
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ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/5007460 2024-04-14T08:06:46+00:00 Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. 2022 https://hdl.handle.net/10278/5007460 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000824621300001 volume:5 issue:1 journal:NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE https://hdl.handle.net/10278/5007460 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85134268822 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftuniveneziairis https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 2024-03-21T17:59:54Z Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s-1970s. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) Arctic npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveneziairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera |
spellingShingle |
Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
topic_facet |
Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera |
description |
Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s-1970s. |
author2 |
Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis |
author_facet |
Nour-Eddine Omrani Noel Keenlyside Katja Matthes Lina Boljka Davide Zanchettin Johann H. Jungclaus Sandro W. Lubis |
author_sort |
Nour-Eddine Omrani |
title |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_short |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_fullStr |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_sort |
coupled stratosphere-troposphere-atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10278/5007460 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000824621300001 volume:5 issue:1 journal:NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE https://hdl.handle.net/10278/5007460 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85134268822 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1796303931725316096 |