A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several...
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ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/3745903 2024-04-14T08:13:42+00:00 A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo 2021 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3745903 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000720564300001 volume:XXX journal:RISK ANALYSIS http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3745903 doi:10.1111/risa.13858 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85119409207 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftuniveneziairis https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 2024-03-21T18:20:11Z In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) Risk Analysis |
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Open Polar |
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Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) |
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ftuniveneziairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica |
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Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
topic_facet |
Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica |
description |
In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. |
author2 |
Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_facet |
Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_sort |
Girardi, Paolo |
title |
A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
title_short |
A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
title_full |
A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
title_fullStr |
A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic |
title_sort |
seir model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the sars-cov-2 epidemic |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3745903 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000720564300001 volume:XXX journal:RISK ANALYSIS http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3745903 doi:10.1111/risa.13858 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85119409207 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
container_title |
Risk Analysis |
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1796311739587887104 |