Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrialHolocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate...
Published in: | Nature Geoscience |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3717174 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
id |
ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/3717174 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/3717174 2024-04-14T08:01:56+00:00 Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond C. Barbante A. Rovere Barbante, C. Rovere, A. Al, Et 2018 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3717174 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000438794800009 volume:11 firstpage:474 lastpage:490 numberofpages:17 journal:NATURE GEOSCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3717174 doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85048956902 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Ice cores climate Settore CHIM/01 - Chimica Analitica info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftuniveneziairis https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 2024-03-21T18:10:17Z Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrialHolocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 degrees C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1-2 degrees C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) Antarctic Greenland Nature Geoscience 11 7 474 485 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveneziairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Ice cores climate Settore CHIM/01 - Chimica Analitica |
spellingShingle |
Ice cores climate Settore CHIM/01 - Chimica Analitica C. Barbante A. Rovere Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
topic_facet |
Ice cores climate Settore CHIM/01 - Chimica Analitica |
description |
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrialHolocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 degrees C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1-2 degrees C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. |
author2 |
Barbante, C. Rovere, A. Al, Et |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Barbante A. Rovere |
author_facet |
C. Barbante A. Rovere |
author_sort |
C. Barbante |
title |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_short |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_fullStr |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full_unstemmed |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_sort |
palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 degrees c anthropogenic warming and beyond |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3717174 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000438794800009 volume:11 firstpage:474 lastpage:490 numberofpages:17 journal:NATURE GEOSCIENCE http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3717174 doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85048956902 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
474 |
op_container_end_page |
485 |
_version_ |
1796311763392659456 |