Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation
Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment.According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss o...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3714405 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718313653?via=ihub |
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ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/3714405 2024-04-21T08:10:22+00:00 Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio 2019 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3714405 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718313653?via=ihub eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/30529418 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000459845200083 volume:232 firstpage:759-771 lastpage:771 journal:JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3714405 doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85059297279 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718313653?via=ihub info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Agent-based model Bayesian network Climate change adaptation Event tree Multi-risk assessment System dynamic modelling Settore CHIM/12 - Chimica dell'Ambiente e dei Beni Culturali info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftuniveneziairis https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 2024-03-28T01:24:22Z Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment.According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation.Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them.Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions.The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) Journal of Environmental Management 232 759 771 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveneziairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Agent-based model Bayesian network Climate change adaptation Event tree Multi-risk assessment System dynamic modelling Settore CHIM/12 - Chimica dell'Ambiente e dei Beni Culturali |
spellingShingle |
Agent-based model Bayesian network Climate change adaptation Event tree Multi-risk assessment System dynamic modelling Settore CHIM/12 - Chimica dell'Ambiente e dei Beni Culturali Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
topic_facet |
Agent-based model Bayesian network Climate change adaptation Event tree Multi-risk assessment System dynamic modelling Settore CHIM/12 - Chimica dell'Ambiente e dei Beni Culturali |
description |
Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment.According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation.Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them.Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions.The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial ... |
author2 |
Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio |
author_facet |
Terzi, Stefano Torresan, Silvia Schneiderbauer, Stefan Critto, Andrea Zebisch, Marc Marcomini, Antonio |
author_sort |
Terzi, Stefano |
title |
Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
title_short |
Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
title_full |
Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
title_fullStr |
Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
title_sort |
multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: a review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3714405 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718313653?via=ihub |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/30529418 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000459845200083 volume:232 firstpage:759-771 lastpage:771 journal:JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3714405 doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85059297279 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718313653?via=ihub |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100 |
container_title |
Journal of Environmental Management |
container_volume |
232 |
container_start_page |
759 |
op_container_end_page |
771 |
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1796951787940347904 |