Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions a...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
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ftuniveneziairis:oai:iris.unive.it:10278/3711208 2024-04-14T08:15:46+00:00 Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. 2013 http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000328274700005 volume:9 issue:6 firstpage:2471 lastpage:2487 numberofpages:17 journal:CLIMATE OF THE PAST http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208 doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84887278749 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Global and Planetary Change Stratigraphy Paleontology Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftuniveneziairis https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 2024-03-21T18:09:06Z We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the f.©Author(s) 2013. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) Pacific Climate of the Past 9 6 2471 2487 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia: ARCA (Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca) |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveneziairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Global and Planetary Change Stratigraphy Paleontology Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera |
spellingShingle |
Global and Planetary Change Stratigraphy Paleontology Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
topic_facet |
Global and Planetary Change Stratigraphy Paleontology Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera |
description |
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the f.©Author(s) 2013. |
author2 |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_facet |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_sort |
Bothe, O. |
title |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_short |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_sort |
consistency of the multi-model cmip5/pmip3-past1000 ensemble |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000328274700005 volume:9 issue:6 firstpage:2471 lastpage:2487 numberofpages:17 journal:CLIMATE OF THE PAST http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3711208 doi:10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84887278749 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
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9 |
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6 |
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2471 |
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2487 |
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