Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010
Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we i...
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ftuniveasternfin:oai:erepo.uef.fi:123456789/5007 2024-06-16T07:41:44+00:00 Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 Gregow H Laaksonen A Alper ME Department of Applied Physics, activities 2017-11-28T14:50:34Z https://erepo.uef.fi/handle/123456789/5007 EN eng Springer Nature Scientific Reports http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep46397 10.1038/srep46397 46397 2045-2322 7 https://erepo.uef.fi/handle/123456789/5007 CC BY 4.0 openAccess © Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric dynamics Forestry Natural hazards info:eu-repo/semantics/article A1 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion article artikkeli 2017 ftuniveasternfin https://doi.org/10.1038/srep46397 2024-05-23T03:07:27Z Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades. published version peerReviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation UEF eRepository (University of Eastern Finland) Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Open Polar |
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UEF eRepository (University of Eastern Finland) |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveasternfin |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric dynamics Forestry Natural hazards |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric dynamics Forestry Natural hazards Gregow H Laaksonen A Alper ME Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric dynamics Forestry Natural hazards |
description |
Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades. published version peerReviewed |
author2 |
Department of Applied Physics, activities |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gregow H Laaksonen A Alper ME |
author_facet |
Gregow H Laaksonen A Alper ME |
author_sort |
Gregow H |
title |
Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
title_short |
Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
title_full |
Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
title_fullStr |
Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010 |
title_sort |
increasing large scale windstorm damage in western, central and northern european forests, 1951-2010 |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://erepo.uef.fi/handle/123456789/5007 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Scientific Reports http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep46397 10.1038/srep46397 46397 2045-2322 7 https://erepo.uef.fi/handle/123456789/5007 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 openAccess © Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep46397 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1802009022088347648 |