Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the...
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2003
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Online Access: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85425/ https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 |
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ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:85425 2023-05-15T14:59:02+02:00 Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts Baldwin, Mark P. Stephenson, David B. Thompson, David W. J. Dunkerton, Timothy J. Charlton, Andrew J. O'Neill, Alan 2003-08-01 https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85425/ https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 unknown Baldwin, Mark P., Stephenson, David B., Thompson, David W. J., Dunkerton, Timothy J., Charlton, Andrew J. and O'Neill, Alan (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science, 301 (5633). pp. 636-640. ISSN 0036-8075 doi:10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 Article PeerReviewed 2003 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 2023-01-30T21:57:11Z We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Arctic Science 301 5633 636 640 |
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Open Polar |
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University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository |
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ftuniveastangl |
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unknown |
description |
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baldwin, Mark P. Stephenson, David B. Thompson, David W. J. Dunkerton, Timothy J. Charlton, Andrew J. O'Neill, Alan |
spellingShingle |
Baldwin, Mark P. Stephenson, David B. Thompson, David W. J. Dunkerton, Timothy J. Charlton, Andrew J. O'Neill, Alan Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
author_facet |
Baldwin, Mark P. Stephenson, David B. Thompson, David W. J. Dunkerton, Timothy J. Charlton, Andrew J. O'Neill, Alan |
author_sort |
Baldwin, Mark P. |
title |
Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
title_short |
Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
title_full |
Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
title_sort |
stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85425/ https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
Baldwin, Mark P., Stephenson, David B., Thompson, David W. J., Dunkerton, Timothy J., Charlton, Andrew J. and O'Neill, Alan (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science, 301 (5633). pp. 636-640. ISSN 0036-8075 doi:10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143 |
container_title |
Science |
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301 |
container_issue |
5633 |
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636 |
op_container_end_page |
640 |
_version_ |
1766331149440778240 |