Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere(1). This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers(2), disintegration of floating ice shelves(3) and a 'greening...
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ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:67920 2023-08-27T04:05:44+02:00 Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab 2016-07-21 https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67920/ https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 unknown Turner, John, Lu, Hua, White, Ian, King, John C., Phillips, Tony, Hosking, J. Scott, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Marshall, Gareth J., Mulvaney, Robert and Deb, Pranab (2016) Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature, 535 (7612). pp. 411-415. ISSN 0028-0836 doi:10.1038/nature18645 Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 2023-08-03T22:32:20Z Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere(1). This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers(2), disintegration of floating ice shelves(3) and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora(4). Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion(5), local sea-ice loss(6), an increase in westerly winds(5,7), and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections(8,9). Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Sea ice Weddell Sea University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea Nature 535 7612 411 415 |
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University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository |
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ftuniveastangl |
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description |
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere(1). This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers(2), disintegration of floating ice shelves(3) and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora(4). Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion(5), local sea-ice loss(6), an increase in westerly winds(5,7), and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections(8,9). Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab |
spellingShingle |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
author_facet |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab |
author_sort |
Turner, John |
title |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_short |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_full |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_fullStr |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_sort |
absence of 21st century warming on antarctic peninsula consistent with natural variability |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67920/ https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Sea ice Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Sea ice Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
Turner, John, Lu, Hua, White, Ian, King, John C., Phillips, Tony, Hosking, J. Scott, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Marshall, Gareth J., Mulvaney, Robert and Deb, Pranab (2016) Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature, 535 (7612). pp. 411-415. ISSN 0028-0836 doi:10.1038/nature18645 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
535 |
container_issue |
7612 |
container_start_page |
411 |
op_container_end_page |
415 |
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1775357481902407680 |