Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification
This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the Intergovernm...
Published in: | Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment |
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ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:66347 2023-05-15T13:39:06+02:00 Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification Good, Peter Bamber, Jonathan Halladay, Kate Harper, Anna B Jackson, Laura C Kay, Gillian Kruijt, Bart Lowe, Jason A. Phillips, Oliver L. Ridley, Jeff Srokosz, Meric Turley, Carol Williamson, Phillip 2018-02 application/pdf https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/ https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/1/Accepted_manuscript.pdf https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317751843 en eng https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/1/Accepted_manuscript.pdf Good, Peter, Bamber, Jonathan, Halladay, Kate, Harper, Anna B, Jackson, Laura C, Kay, Gillian, Kruijt, Bart, Lowe, Jason A., Phillips, Oliver L., Ridley, Jeff, Srokosz, Meric, Turley, Carol and Williamson, Phillip (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification. Progress in Physical Geography, 42 (1). pp. 24-60. ISSN 0309-1333 doi:10.1177/0309133317751843 Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317751843 2023-03-23T23:32:23Z This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. For ice sheets, some degree of irreversible loss (timescales of millennia) of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have already begun, but the rate and eventual magnitude of this irreversible loss is uncertain. The observed AMOC overturning has decreased from 2004–2014, but it is unclear at this stage whether this is forced or is internal variability. New evidence from experimental and natural droughts has given greater confidence that tropical forests are adversely affected by drought. The ecological and socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification are expected to greatly increase over the range from today’s annual value of around 400, up to 650 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere (reached around 2070 under RCP8.5), with the rapid development of aragonite undersaturation at high latitudes affecting calcifying organisms. Tropical coral reefs are vulnerable to the interaction of ocean acidification and temperature rise, and the rapidity of those changes, with severe losses and risks to survival at 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. Across the four systems studied, however, quantitative evidence for a difference in risk between 1.5 and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels is limited. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 42 1 24 60 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveastangl |
language |
English |
description |
This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. For ice sheets, some degree of irreversible loss (timescales of millennia) of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have already begun, but the rate and eventual magnitude of this irreversible loss is uncertain. The observed AMOC overturning has decreased from 2004–2014, but it is unclear at this stage whether this is forced or is internal variability. New evidence from experimental and natural droughts has given greater confidence that tropical forests are adversely affected by drought. The ecological and socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification are expected to greatly increase over the range from today’s annual value of around 400, up to 650 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere (reached around 2070 under RCP8.5), with the rapid development of aragonite undersaturation at high latitudes affecting calcifying organisms. Tropical coral reefs are vulnerable to the interaction of ocean acidification and temperature rise, and the rapidity of those changes, with severe losses and risks to survival at 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. Across the four systems studied, however, quantitative evidence for a difference in risk between 1.5 and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels is limited. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Good, Peter Bamber, Jonathan Halladay, Kate Harper, Anna B Jackson, Laura C Kay, Gillian Kruijt, Bart Lowe, Jason A. Phillips, Oliver L. Ridley, Jeff Srokosz, Meric Turley, Carol Williamson, Phillip |
spellingShingle |
Good, Peter Bamber, Jonathan Halladay, Kate Harper, Anna B Jackson, Laura C Kay, Gillian Kruijt, Bart Lowe, Jason A. Phillips, Oliver L. Ridley, Jeff Srokosz, Meric Turley, Carol Williamson, Phillip Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
author_facet |
Good, Peter Bamber, Jonathan Halladay, Kate Harper, Anna B Jackson, Laura C Kay, Gillian Kruijt, Bart Lowe, Jason A. Phillips, Oliver L. Ridley, Jeff Srokosz, Meric Turley, Carol Williamson, Phillip |
author_sort |
Good, Peter |
title |
Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
title_short |
Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
title_full |
Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
title_fullStr |
Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
title_sort |
recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:ice sheets, the atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/ https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/1/Accepted_manuscript.pdf https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317751843 |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66347/1/Accepted_manuscript.pdf Good, Peter, Bamber, Jonathan, Halladay, Kate, Harper, Anna B, Jackson, Laura C, Kay, Gillian, Kruijt, Bart, Lowe, Jason A., Phillips, Oliver L., Ridley, Jeff, Srokosz, Meric, Turley, Carol and Williamson, Phillip (2018) Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds:Ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, tropical forests and responses to ocean acidification. Progress in Physical Geography, 42 (1). pp. 24-60. ISSN 0309-1333 doi:10.1177/0309133317751843 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317751843 |
container_title |
Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
24 |
op_container_end_page |
60 |
_version_ |
1766114412269142016 |