Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change

1. Polar bear Ursus maritimus population dynamics under conditions of climate change has become a controversial topic. A survey of expert opinion based on modelled sea-ice data was performed in order to quantify the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear pop...

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Published in:Journal of Applied Ecology
Main Authors: O'Neill, Saffron J., Osborn, Tim J., Hulme, Mike, Lorenzoni, Irene, Watkinson, Andrew R.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2008
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/25465/
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x
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spelling ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:25465 2023-05-15T14:50:11+02:00 Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change O'Neill, Saffron J. Osborn, Tim J. Hulme, Mike Lorenzoni, Irene Watkinson, Andrew R. 2008 https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/25465/ https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x unknown O'Neill, Saffron J., Osborn, Tim J., Hulme, Mike, Lorenzoni, Irene and Watkinson, Andrew R. (2008) Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45 (6). pp. 1649-1659. ISSN 1365-2664 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x Article PeerReviewed 2008 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x 2023-03-23T23:31:34Z 1. Polar bear Ursus maritimus population dynamics under conditions of climate change has become a controversial topic. A survey of expert opinion based on modelled sea-ice data was performed in order to quantify the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. 2. Polar bears have become an iconic species in the communication of climate change. Negative impacts of climatic warming on polar bears have been suggested, but cannot be fully quantified as no Arctic-wide models yet exist to analyse the relationship between polar bear population dynamics and climate change. 3. Ten polar bear experts participated in an expert opinion survey in early 2007, quantifying the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. The experts were provided with maps and time-series of sea-ice extent and duration to 2050, simulated under a mid-range emissions scenario. Expert projections of future polar bear habitat range and population size across the Arctic, and for population size in five regions, were obtained. Experts were asked to define ‘best conservation practice’, and to re-evaluate the total Arctic population projection if this best practice was implemented. 4. Most experts project a substantial decline in polar bear range and population size across the Arctic and in population size across each region. Expert best estimates for total Arctic polar bear population size lie from no change to a 70% decrease by 2050 relative to today; with half the experts projecting at least a 30% decrease. The median best estimates show the Barents Sea, Hudson Bay and the Chukchi Sea populations experiencing the greatest population decline under this scenario. There is much uncertainty both within and between expert responses, especially in little-researched regions such as the Chukchi Sea. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on projected changes in sea-ice extent, experts suggest that polar bear populations will undergo significant declines by 2050, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Population Barents Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Climate change Hudson Bay Sea ice Ursus maritimus University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Arctic Barents Sea Chukchi Sea Hudson Hudson Bay Journal of Applied Ecology 45 6 1649 1659
institution Open Polar
collection University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository
op_collection_id ftuniveastangl
language unknown
description 1. Polar bear Ursus maritimus population dynamics under conditions of climate change has become a controversial topic. A survey of expert opinion based on modelled sea-ice data was performed in order to quantify the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. 2. Polar bears have become an iconic species in the communication of climate change. Negative impacts of climatic warming on polar bears have been suggested, but cannot be fully quantified as no Arctic-wide models yet exist to analyse the relationship between polar bear population dynamics and climate change. 3. Ten polar bear experts participated in an expert opinion survey in early 2007, quantifying the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. The experts were provided with maps and time-series of sea-ice extent and duration to 2050, simulated under a mid-range emissions scenario. Expert projections of future polar bear habitat range and population size across the Arctic, and for population size in five regions, were obtained. Experts were asked to define ‘best conservation practice’, and to re-evaluate the total Arctic population projection if this best practice was implemented. 4. Most experts project a substantial decline in polar bear range and population size across the Arctic and in population size across each region. Expert best estimates for total Arctic polar bear population size lie from no change to a 70% decrease by 2050 relative to today; with half the experts projecting at least a 30% decrease. The median best estimates show the Barents Sea, Hudson Bay and the Chukchi Sea populations experiencing the greatest population decline under this scenario. There is much uncertainty both within and between expert responses, especially in little-researched regions such as the Chukchi Sea. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on projected changes in sea-ice extent, experts suggest that polar bear populations will undergo significant declines by 2050, ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author O'Neill, Saffron J.
Osborn, Tim J.
Hulme, Mike
Lorenzoni, Irene
Watkinson, Andrew R.
spellingShingle O'Neill, Saffron J.
Osborn, Tim J.
Hulme, Mike
Lorenzoni, Irene
Watkinson, Andrew R.
Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
author_facet O'Neill, Saffron J.
Osborn, Tim J.
Hulme, Mike
Lorenzoni, Irene
Watkinson, Andrew R.
author_sort O'Neill, Saffron J.
title Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
title_short Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
title_full Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
title_fullStr Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
title_full_unstemmed Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
title_sort using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change
publishDate 2008
url https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/25465/
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x
geographic Arctic
Barents Sea
Chukchi Sea
Hudson
Hudson Bay
geographic_facet Arctic
Barents Sea
Chukchi Sea
Hudson
Hudson Bay
genre Arctic
Arctic Population
Barents Sea
Chukchi
Chukchi Sea
Climate change
Hudson Bay
Sea ice
Ursus maritimus
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic Population
Barents Sea
Chukchi
Chukchi Sea
Climate change
Hudson Bay
Sea ice
Ursus maritimus
op_relation O'Neill, Saffron J., Osborn, Tim J., Hulme, Mike, Lorenzoni, Irene and Watkinson, Andrew R. (2008) Using expert knowledge to assess uncertainties in future polar bear populations under climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45 (6). pp. 1649-1659. ISSN 1365-2664
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01552.x
container_title Journal of Applied Ecology
container_volume 45
container_issue 6
container_start_page 1649
op_container_end_page 1659
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