Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global war...
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ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:24597 2023-05-15T13:53:02+02:00 Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim 2009 https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/24597/ https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 unknown Kriegler, Elmar, Hall, Jim W., Held, Hermann, Dawson, Richard and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106 (13). pp. 5041-5046. ISSN 1091-6490 doi:10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 2023-01-30T21:26:20Z Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Antarctic Greenland Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 13 5041 5046 |
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Open Polar |
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University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository |
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ftuniveastangl |
language |
unknown |
description |
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
spellingShingle |
Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
author_facet |
Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Held, Hermann Dawson, Richard Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
author_sort |
Kriegler, Elmar |
title |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_short |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_full |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_fullStr |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
title_sort |
imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/24597/ https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_relation |
Kriegler, Elmar, Hall, Jim W., Held, Hermann, Dawson, Richard and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106 (13). pp. 5041-5046. ISSN 1091-6490 doi:10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5041 |
op_container_end_page |
5046 |
_version_ |
1766257985215004672 |