The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships
We study the influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme daily precipitation across the United Kingdom, using observed time series from 689 rain gauges. To this end we employ a statistical model, that uses airflow strength, direction and vorticity as predictors for the generalised...
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ftuniveastangl:oai:ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk:19921 2023-05-15T17:32:24+02:00 The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships Maraun, Douglas Osborn, Timothy J. Rust, Henning W. 2011 https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/19921/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 unknown Maraun, Douglas, Osborn, Timothy J. and Rust, Henning W. (2011) The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships. Climate Dynamics, 36 (1). pp. 261-275. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 Article PeerReviewed 2011 ftuniveastangl https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 2023-03-23T23:31:25Z We study the influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme daily precipitation across the United Kingdom, using observed time series from 689 rain gauges. To this end we employ a statistical model, that uses airflow strength, direction and vorticity as predictors for the generalised extreme value distribution of monthly precipitation maxima. The inferred relationships are connected with the dominant westerly flow, the orography, and the moisture supply from surrounding seas. We aggregated the results for individual rain gauges to regional scales to investigate the temporal variability of extreme precipitation. Airflow explains a significant fraction of the variability on subannual to decadal time scales. A large fraction of the especially heavy winter precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s in north Scotland can be attributed to a prevailing positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our statistical model can be used for statistical downscaling and to validate regional climate model output. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository Climate Dynamics 36 1-2 261 275 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of East Anglia: UEA Digital Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftuniveastangl |
language |
unknown |
description |
We study the influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme daily precipitation across the United Kingdom, using observed time series from 689 rain gauges. To this end we employ a statistical model, that uses airflow strength, direction and vorticity as predictors for the generalised extreme value distribution of monthly precipitation maxima. The inferred relationships are connected with the dominant westerly flow, the orography, and the moisture supply from surrounding seas. We aggregated the results for individual rain gauges to regional scales to investigate the temporal variability of extreme precipitation. Airflow explains a significant fraction of the variability on subannual to decadal time scales. A large fraction of the especially heavy winter precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s in north Scotland can be attributed to a prevailing positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our statistical model can be used for statistical downscaling and to validate regional climate model output. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maraun, Douglas Osborn, Timothy J. Rust, Henning W. |
spellingShingle |
Maraun, Douglas Osborn, Timothy J. Rust, Henning W. The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
author_facet |
Maraun, Douglas Osborn, Timothy J. Rust, Henning W. |
author_sort |
Maraun, Douglas |
title |
The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
title_short |
The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
title_full |
The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
title_fullStr |
The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
title_full_unstemmed |
The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships |
title_sort |
influence of synoptic airflow on uk daily precipitation extremes. part 1: observed spatio-temporal relationships |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/19921/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Maraun, Douglas, Osborn, Timothy J. and Rust, Henning W. (2011) The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part 1: Observed spatio-temporal relationships. Climate Dynamics, 36 (1). pp. 261-275. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
261 |
op_container_end_page |
275 |
_version_ |
1766130509997408256 |