Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change.
Research on climate change impacts has focused on projecting changes in the geographic ranges of species, with less emphasis on the vital rates giving rise to species distributions. Managing ungulate populations under future climate change will require an understanding of how their vital rates are a...
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Online Access: | http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/1/22104.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 |
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ftunivdurham:oai:dro.dur.ac.uk.OAI2:22104 2023-05-15T18:50:28+02:00 Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. Davis, M.L. Stephens, P.A. Kjellander, P. 2016-04-01 application/pdf http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/1/22104.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 unknown Wiley dro:22104 issn:0022-541X issn: 1937-2817 doi:10.1002/jwmg.1029 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/ https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/1/22104.pdf This is the accepted version of the following article: Davis, M. L., Stephens, P. A. and Kjellander, P. (2016), Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 80(3): 452-464, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving. Journal of wildlife management, 2016, Vol.80(3), pp.452-464 [Peer Reviewed Journal] Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivdurham https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 2020-06-04T22:23:52Z Research on climate change impacts has focused on projecting changes in the geographic ranges of species, with less emphasis on the vital rates giving rise to species distributions. Managing ungulate populations under future climate change will require an understanding of how their vital rates are affected by direct climatic effects and the indirect climatic and non-climatic effects that are often overlooked by climate impact studies. We used generalized linear models and capture–mark–recapture models to assess the influence of a variety of direct climatic, indirect climatic, and non-climatic predictors on the survival of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) at 2 sites in Sweden. The models indicated that although direct climatic effects (e.g., precipitation) explained some variation in survival, indirect climatic effects (e.g., an index of vegetation production), and non-climatic effects (hunting by lynx [Lynx lynx] and humans) had greater explanatory power. Climate change is likely to increase vegetation productivity in northern Europe, and, coupled with the positive effects of vegetation productivity on roe deer survival, might lead to population increases in the future. Survival was negatively affected by lynx presence where these predators occur and by human harvest in the site that lacked predators. In the future, managers might find that a combination of increased harvest and predation by recovering carnivore populations may be necessary to mitigate climate-induced increases in roe deer survival. Considering vegetation availability and predation effects is likely to improve predictions of ungulate population responses to variation in climate and, therefore, inform management under future climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Lynx Lynx lynx lynx Durham University: Durham Research Online The Journal of Wildlife Management 80 3 452 464 |
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Durham University: Durham Research Online |
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ftunivdurham |
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unknown |
description |
Research on climate change impacts has focused on projecting changes in the geographic ranges of species, with less emphasis on the vital rates giving rise to species distributions. Managing ungulate populations under future climate change will require an understanding of how their vital rates are affected by direct climatic effects and the indirect climatic and non-climatic effects that are often overlooked by climate impact studies. We used generalized linear models and capture–mark–recapture models to assess the influence of a variety of direct climatic, indirect climatic, and non-climatic predictors on the survival of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) at 2 sites in Sweden. The models indicated that although direct climatic effects (e.g., precipitation) explained some variation in survival, indirect climatic effects (e.g., an index of vegetation production), and non-climatic effects (hunting by lynx [Lynx lynx] and humans) had greater explanatory power. Climate change is likely to increase vegetation productivity in northern Europe, and, coupled with the positive effects of vegetation productivity on roe deer survival, might lead to population increases in the future. Survival was negatively affected by lynx presence where these predators occur and by human harvest in the site that lacked predators. In the future, managers might find that a combination of increased harvest and predation by recovering carnivore populations may be necessary to mitigate climate-induced increases in roe deer survival. Considering vegetation availability and predation effects is likely to improve predictions of ungulate population responses to variation in climate and, therefore, inform management under future climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Davis, M.L. Stephens, P.A. Kjellander, P. |
spellingShingle |
Davis, M.L. Stephens, P.A. Kjellander, P. Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
author_facet |
Davis, M.L. Stephens, P.A. Kjellander, P. |
author_sort |
Davis, M.L. |
title |
Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
title_short |
Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
title_full |
Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
title_fullStr |
Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
title_sort |
beyond climate envelope projections : roe deer survival and environmental change. |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/1/22104.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 |
genre |
Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
genre_facet |
Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
op_source |
Journal of wildlife management, 2016, Vol.80(3), pp.452-464 [Peer Reviewed Journal] |
op_relation |
dro:22104 issn:0022-541X issn: 1937-2817 doi:10.1002/jwmg.1029 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/ https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/22104/1/22104.pdf |
op_rights |
This is the accepted version of the following article: Davis, M. L., Stephens, P. A. and Kjellander, P. (2016), Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 80(3): 452-464, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.1029 |
container_title |
The Journal of Wildlife Management |
container_volume |
80 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
452 |
op_container_end_page |
464 |
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1766244193323188224 |