Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet.
We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 melt season, we d...
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Copernicus Publications
2012
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Online Access: | http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/1/16368.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
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ftunivdurham:oai:dro.dur.ac.uk.OAI2:16368 2023-05-15T16:27:36+02:00 Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. Leeson, A. A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, X. 2012-10-02 application/pdf http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/1/16368.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 unknown Copernicus Publications dro:16368 issn:1994-0416 issn: 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/ http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/1/16368.pdf © Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. CC-BY The cryosphere, 2012, Vol.6(5), pp.1077-1086 [Peer Reviewed Journal] Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftunivdurham https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 2020-05-28T22:33:11Z We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 melt season, we demonstrate that the model is 19 times more likely to correctly predict the presence (or absence) of lakes than it is to make incorrect predictions, within an elevation range of 1100 to 1700 metres above sea level (m a.s.l.), when compared with MODIS satellite imagery. Of the 66% of observed lake locations which the model correctly reproduces, the simulated lake onset day is found to be correlated with that observed with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76. Our model accurately simulates maximum cumulative lake area with only a 1.5% overestimate. However, because our model does not simulate processes leading to lake stagnation or decay, such as refreezing or drainage, at present we do not simulate absolute daily lake area. We find that the maximum potential lake-covered ice sheet area is limited by topography to 6.4%. We estimate that this corresponds to a volume of 1.49 km3, 12% of the runoff produced in 2003. This can be taken as an upper bound given uncertainty in the DEM. This study has proved a good first step towards capturing the variability of supraglacial lake evolution with a numerical model. These initial results are promising and suggest that the model is a useful tool for use in analysing the behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet in the present day and potentially beyond. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Durham University: Durham Research Online Greenland The Cryosphere 6 5 1077 1086 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Durham University: Durham Research Online |
op_collection_id |
ftunivdurham |
language |
unknown |
description |
We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 melt season, we demonstrate that the model is 19 times more likely to correctly predict the presence (or absence) of lakes than it is to make incorrect predictions, within an elevation range of 1100 to 1700 metres above sea level (m a.s.l.), when compared with MODIS satellite imagery. Of the 66% of observed lake locations which the model correctly reproduces, the simulated lake onset day is found to be correlated with that observed with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76. Our model accurately simulates maximum cumulative lake area with only a 1.5% overestimate. However, because our model does not simulate processes leading to lake stagnation or decay, such as refreezing or drainage, at present we do not simulate absolute daily lake area. We find that the maximum potential lake-covered ice sheet area is limited by topography to 6.4%. We estimate that this corresponds to a volume of 1.49 km3, 12% of the runoff produced in 2003. This can be taken as an upper bound given uncertainty in the DEM. This study has proved a good first step towards capturing the variability of supraglacial lake evolution with a numerical model. These initial results are promising and suggest that the model is a useful tool for use in analysing the behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet in the present day and potentially beyond. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leeson, A. A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, X. |
spellingShingle |
Leeson, A. A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, X. Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
author_facet |
Leeson, A. A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, X. |
author_sort |
Leeson, A. A. |
title |
Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
title_short |
Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
title_full |
Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
title_fullStr |
Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. |
title_sort |
simulating the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the greenland ice sheet. |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/ http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/1/16368.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The cryosphere, 2012, Vol.6(5), pp.1077-1086 [Peer Reviewed Journal] |
op_relation |
dro:16368 issn:1994-0416 issn: 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/ http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 http://dro.dur.ac.uk/16368/1/16368.pdf |
op_rights |
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1077 |
op_container_end_page |
1086 |
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1766016999424524288 |