Comparison of existing ZOI estimation methods with different model specifications and data.

• Main Author: Mukhopadhyay, Shraddha
• Format: Bachelor Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Högskolan Dalarna, Mikrodataanalys 2020
• Subjects: Zone of Influence; reindeer; pellet group count; logistic regression; segmented model; Hierarchical Likelihood; Adaptive Lasso; threshold; breakpoint; Computer and Information Sciences; Data- och informationsvetenskap; Northern Sweden
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-34397

With the increasing demand and interest in wind power worldwide, it is interesting to study the effects of running windfarms on the activity of reindeers and estimate the associated Zone of Influence (ZOI) relative to these disturbances. Through simulation, Hierarchical Likelihood (HL) and adaptive Lasso methods are used to estimate the ZOI of windfarms and catching the correct threshold at which the negative effect of the disturbances on the reindeer behaviour disappears. The results found some merit to the explanation that the negative effect may not disappear abruptly and more merit to the fact that a linear model was still a better choice than the smooth polynomial models used. A real-life data related to reindeer faecal pellet counts from an area in northern Sweden were windfarms were running were analyzed. The yearly time series data was divided into three periods : before construction, during construction and during operation of the windfarms. Logistic regression, segmented model, and HL methods were implemented for data analysis by using covariates as distance from wind turbine, vegetation type, the interaction between distance to wind turbine and time period. A significant breakpoint could be estimated using the segmented model at a distance of 2.8 km from running windfarm, after which the negative effects of the windfarm on the reindeer activity disappeared. However, further work is needed for estimation of ZOI using HL method and considering other possible factors causing disturbances to the reindeer habitat and behaviour.