Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

• Published in: The Lancet
• Main Authors: Fullman, Nancy, Barber, Ryan M, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Kopec, Jacek A, Meier, Toni, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Do, Huyen Phuc, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Butt, Zahid A, Norheim, Ole F, Kim, Daniel, Hammami, Mouhanad, Geleto, Ayele, Yotebieng, Marcel, Bannick, Marlena S, Younis, Mustafa Z, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Shamsipour, Mansour, Kosen, Soewarta, Zavala-Arciniega, Luis, Kisa, Adnan, Criqui, Michael H, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Reinig, Nikolas, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N, Zodpey, Sanjay, Dokova, Klara, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Lim, Stephen S, Dargan, Paul I, Uneke, Chigozie Jesse, Murray, Christopher J L, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Barac, Aleksandra, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Koul, Parvaiz A, Reitsma, Marissa B, Bärnighausen, Till, Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Barrero, Lope H, Updike, Rachel, Basu, Sanjay, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Battle, Katherine E, Baune, Bernhard T, Beardsley, Justin, Hawley, Caitlin, Doku, David Teye, Memish, Ziad A, Goldberg, Ellen M, Azzopardi, Peter, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Stein, Dan J, Asayesh, Hamid, Koyanagi, Ai, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bennett, Derrick A, Bennett, James R, Rao, Puja C, Bensenor, Isabela M, Berhane, Adugnaw, Cromwell, Elizabeth A, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Steiner, Caitlyn, Mendoza, Walter, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Malekzadeh, Reza, Bernabé, Eduardo, Uthman, Olalekan A, Donkelaar, Aaron van, Kravchenko, Michael, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Steinke, Sabine, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Bhala, Neeraj, Ansari, Hossein, Bhansali, Anil, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Bhatt, Samir, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Hay, Simon I, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast, Furtado, Joao M, Renzaho, Andre M N, McKee, Martin, Kawakami, Norito, Bikbov, Boris, Dorsey, E Ray, Bilal, Arebu I, Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Friedman, Joseph, Strub, Bryan, Allebeck, Peter, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Griswold, Max, Blosser, Christopher D, Boneya, Dube Jara, Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed, Resnikoff, Serge, Bose, Dipan, He, Jiawei, Krohn, Kristopher J, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Brauer, Michael, De Steur, Hans, Driscoll, Tim R, Oh, In-Hwan, Dubey, Manisha, Mengistie, Mubarek Abera, Sharma, Jayendra, Afshin, Ashkan, Rezaei, Satar, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebel, Beth E, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Cárdenas, Rosario, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Enayati, Ahmadali, Alam, Noore, Hendrie, Delia, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Khalil, Ibrahim A, van Boven, Job F M, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Mensah, George A, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Agrawal, Anurag, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino, Varughese, Santosh, Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Carter, Austin, Naghavi, Mohsen, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Henry, Nathaniel J, Mensink, Gert B M, Faro, André, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Vasankari, Tommi, Sharma, Rajesh, Feigin, Valery L, Dandona, Rakhi, Feigl, Andrea B, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi, Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus, Agrawal, Sutapa, Fernandes, João C, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Ferrari, Alize J, Kasaeian, Amir, She, Jun, Mantovani, Lorenzo G, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Kamal, Ritul, Vidavalur, Ramesh, Christensen, Hanne, Flaxman, Abraham D, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Sunguya, Bruno F, Shi, Peilin, Frank, Tahvi, Kumar, G Anil, Mereta, Seid Tiku, Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Franklin, Richard C, Hoek, Hans W, Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Holmberg, Mollie, Olivares, Pedro R, Sur, Patrick J, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Shibuya, Kenji, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Rawaf, Salman, Hostiuc, Sorin, Aichour, Ibtihel, Hoy, Damian G, Chang, Jung-Chen, Kumar Lal, Dharmesh, Anwari, Palwasha, Mazidi, Mohsen, Hsairi, Mohamed, Htet, Aung Soe, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Hankey, Graeme J, Amare, Azmeraw T, Huang, John J, Huang, Hsiang, Huynh, Chantal, Cameron, Ewan, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Inoue, Manami, Roba, Kedir Teji, Violante, Francesco S, Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Kutz, Michael J, Olsen, Helen E, Aiyar, Sneha, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Swaminathan, Soumya, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, Gupta, Vipin, Jauregui, Alejandra, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Rojas-Rueda, David, Shields, Chloe, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Jha, Vivekanand, Malhotra, Rajesh, Sykes, Bryan L, Altirkawi, Khalid A, John, Denny, Kyu, Hmwe H, Johnson, Catherine O, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Majdzadeh, Reza, Gona, Philimon N, Jonas, Jost B, Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Vladimirov, Sergey K, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Kadel, Rajendra, Meretoja, Atte, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Carabin, Hélène, Kahsay, Amaha, Lalloo, Ratilal, Shifa, Girma Temam, Lansingh, Van C, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Sylte, Dillon O, Larsson, Anders, Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor, Lee, Paul H, Casey, Daniel C, Alasfoor, Deena, Giussani, Giorgia, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, das Neves, José, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Leigh, James, Leung, Janni, Nguyen, Grant, Crump, John A, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yongmei, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Linn, Shai, Mehata, Suresh, Liu, Patrick Y, Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Schwebel, David C, Liu, Shiwei, Micha, Renata, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Lodha, Rakesh, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Vollset, Stein Emil, Looker, Katharine J, Lopez, Alan D, Lorkowski, Stefan, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Szoeke, Cassandra E I, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Lotufo, Paulo A, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Lozano, Rafael, Naheed, Aliya, Bacha, Umar, Lucas, Timothy C D, Millear, Anoushka, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Mackay, Mark T, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Maddison, Emilie R, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed, Ong, Kanyin, Roth, Gregory A, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Majdan, Marek, Miller, Ted R, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Allen, Christine, Shigematsu, Mika, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Vos, Theo, Minnig, Shawn, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M, Gething, Peter W, Charlson, Fiona J, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Oren, Eyal, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Shiva Raj, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Gupta, Rajeev, Mitchell, Philip B, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammed, Kedir Endris, Akseer, Nadia, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohan, Murali B V, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Sposato, Luciano A, Mokdad, Ali H, Ortiz, Alberto, Shin, Min-Jeong, Gibney, Katherine B, Mollenkopf, Sarah K, Chew, Adrienne, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montañez Hernandez, Julio Cesar, Montico, Marcella, Degenhardt, Louisa, Wadilo, Fiseha, Kastor, Anshul, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Roy, Ambuj, Moraga, Paula, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Morawska, Lidia, Owolabi, Mayowa O, Morrison, Shane D, Moses, Mark W, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Rafay, Anwar, McAlinden, Colm, Alsharif, Ubai, Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Mueller, Ulrich O, Rubagotti, Enrico, Shiri, Rahman, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Muller, Kate, PA, Mahesh, Wakayo, Tolassa, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Tandon, Nikhil, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Pana, Adrian, Panda, Basant Kumar, Amini, Erfan, Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew, Glenn, Scott D, Cercy, Kelly, Sadat, Nafis, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Papachristou, Christina, Kinfu, Yohannes, Park, Eun-Kee, Patton, George C, Paulson, Katherine, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Pereira, David M, Perico, David Norberto, Cirillo, Massimo, Wallin, Mitchell T, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Pesudovs, Konrad, Safdarian, Mahdi, Tao, Tianchan, Kemmer, Laura, Petzold, Max, Godwin, William W, Phillips, Michael Robert, Ammar, Walid, Pigott, David M, Harb, Hilda L, Mamun, Abdullah A, Pillay, Julian David, Shirkoohi, Reza, Pinho, Christine, Schwendicke, Falk, Piradov, Michael A, Safi, Sare, Pishgar, Farhad, Poulton, Richie G, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Nomura, Marika, Cooper, Cyrus, Pourmalek, Farshad, Brugha, Traolach S, Qorbani, Mostafa, Shirude, Shreya, Tarekegn, Yihunie L, Manguerra, Helena, Radfar, Amir, Arora, Megha, Goodridge, Amador, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Naidoo, Kovin S, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Dandona, Lalit, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Shishani, Kawkab, Salama, Joseph, Salomon, Joshua A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Santomauro, Damian, Gillum, Richard F, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Shoman, Haitham, Weichenthal, Scott, Mapoma, Chabila C, Artaman, Al, Khang, Young-Ho, Sartorius, Benn, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Satpathy, Maheswar, Nangia, Vinay, Sawhney, Monika, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Saxena, Sonia, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Saylan, Mete I, Shrime, Mark G, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Schneider, Ione J C, Marks, Guy B, Goryakin, Yevgeniy, Schneider, Matthew T, Frostad, Joseph J, Schöttker, Ben, Taveira, Nuno, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Schutte, Aletta E, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Kieling, Christian, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Silberberg, Donald H, Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Gupta, Tanush, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Martopullo, Ira, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Assadi, Reza, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Virendra, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Kim, Jun Y, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Negoi, Ionut, de Courten, Barbora, Mathur, Manu Raj, Sligar, Amber, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Smith, David L, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Smith, Alison, Weintraub, Robert G, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Smith, Mari, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Sobaih, Badr H A, Sobngwi, Eugene, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Kim, Yun Jin, Soljak, Michael, Karch, André, Soneji, Samir, Weiss, Daniel J, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Sorensen, Reed J D, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Alla, François, Seedat, Soraya, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, JS, Alam, Khurshid, Rajsic, Sasa, Nguyen, Minh, Werdecker, Andrea, Deiparine, Selina, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thrift, Amanda G, Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Martin, Randall V, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, McGaughey, Madeline, Tortajada, Miguel, Ding, Eric L, Ram, Usha, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Nichols, Emma, Awasthi, Ashish, Fürst, Thomas, Tran, Bach Xuan, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Troeger, Christopher, Deribe, Kebede, Truelsen, Thomas, Badawi, Alaa, Tsoi, Derrick, Tuem, Kald Beshir, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, McGrath, John J, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Majeed, Azeem, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Kivimaki, Mika, Chitheer, Abdulaal A, Srinivasan, Vinay, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Reidy, Patrick, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D A, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Woodbrook, Rachel, Xavier, Denis, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Xu, Gelin, Shaheen, Amira, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Reiner, Robert C, Djalalinia, Shirin, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Yadgir, Simon, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Yakob, Bereket, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Shahraz, Saeid, Nong, Vuong Minh, Yaseri, Mehdi, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Ye, Pengpeng, Atre, Sachin R, Yimam, Hassen Hamid
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2017
• Subjects: Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/23721; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X

Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable ...