Breeding success of a marine central place forager in the context of climate change: A modeling approach

• Published in: PLOS ONE
• Main Authors: Massardier-Galatà, Lauriane, Morinay, Jennifer, Bailleul, Frédéric, Wajnberg, Eric, Guinet, Christophe, Coquillard, Patrick
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de physique de la matière condensée (LPMC), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Sophia Agrobiotech (ISA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) MyctO-3D-MAP, SVSE 7 2011, Y. Cherel
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: Bioenergetics; Predation; Death rates; Seals; Fishes; Animal sexual behavior; Climate change; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctic Fur Seal; Arctocephalus gazella
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-01502770; https://hal.science/hal-01502770/document; https://hal.science/hal-01502770/file/breeding_1.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0173797

International audience In response to climate warming, a southward shift in productive frontal systems serving as themain foraging sites for many top predator species is likely to occur in Subantarctic areas. Centralplace foragers, such as seabirds and pinnipeds, are thus likely to cope with an increase inthe distance between foraging locations and their land-based breeding colonies. Understandinghow central place foragers should modify their foraging behavior in response to changes inprey accessibility appears crucial. A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model (MarineCentral Place Forager Simulator (MarCPFS)), including bio-energetic components, was built toevaluate effects of possible changes in prey resources accessibility on individual performancesand breeding success. The study was calibrated on a particular example: the Antarctic fur seal(Arctocephalus gazella), which alternates between oceanic areas in which females feed andthe land-based colony in which they suckle their young over a 120 days rearing period. Ourmodel shows the importance of the distance covered to feed and prey aggregation whichappeared to be key factors to which animals are highly sensitive. Memorization and learningabilities also appear to be essential breeding success traits. Females were found to be mostsuccessful for intermediate levels of prey aggregation and short distance to the resource,resulting in optimal female body length. Increased distance to resources due to climate warmingshould hinder pups' growth and survival while female body length should increase.