The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs
We explored the relationship between the precipitation anomalies during May to June as the first peak of the rainy season in the Pacific slope of Central America, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the surrounding oceans, using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). With this approach,...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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ftunivcostarica:oai:https://www.kerwa.ucr.ac.cr:10669/74091 2023-05-15T17:30:43+02:00 The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs Maldonado Mora, Tito José Alfaro Martínez, Eric J. Rutgersson, Anna Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto 2016 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10669/74091 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4958/abstract;jsessionid=978AE674CA53C7EE82F12C752FA7FAB8.f01t02 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4958 en_US eng http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4958/abstract;jsessionid=978AE674CA53C7EE82F12C752FA7FAB8.f01t02 1097-0088 https://hdl.handle.net/10669/74091 doi:10.1002/joc.4958 805-B0-065 805-B0-130 805-A9-532 805-B3-600 805-B4-226 805-B4-227 805-B6-143 805-B5-296 International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, Núm. 9, 2016 Seasonal climate prediction Central America Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature Canonical correlation analysis Heavy rainfall events artículo científico 2016 ftunivcostarica https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4958 2022-10-30T05:52:36Z We explored the relationship between the precipitation anomalies during May to June as the first peak of the rainy season in the Pacific slope of Central America, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the surrounding oceans, using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). With this approach, we studied variations in total precipitation, frequency of rainy days and the monthly occurrence of days with rainfall above (below) the 80th (20th) percentile, due to changes in the nearby SST. Composites of the sea-level pressure (SLP), geopotential heights (200 hPa), relative humidity (700 hPa), horizontal moisture flux and wind at 850 hPa were estimated to provide a dynamical analysis. The composites are calculated using the information obtained with CCA. In addition, we used a general circulation model forced with fixed SST to explore the sensitivity of the model to the SST patterns found using CCA. The results show that the SST over the tropical North Atlantic controls the precipitation fluctuations at interannual scales, due to its connection with the tropical upper tropospheric trough. Warmer (colder) temperatures result in SLP below normal in the Caribbean region, associated with an increase in the heights at 200 hPa. This vertical configuration reduces the wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa and increases the input of humidity to mid-levels, creating favourable conditions for deep convection, and favouring the generation of tropical cyclone activity. In the Pacific, a positive anomalous low-level moisture flux is observed from the ocean to the continental parts of the region and may enhance the formation of mesoscale systems. The classic prediction schemes show a lead time of 1 or 2 months; this is an advantage for climate services operative work. The atmospheric model outcomes replicate the main results found in the composite analysis, reflecting its potential use for model output statistics predictive schemes. Universidad de Uppsala/[54100006]//Suecia Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa ... Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic Universidad de Costa Rica: Repositorio Kérwá Pacific Suecia ENVELOPE(-62.617,-62.617,-66.733,-66.733) International Journal of Climatology 37 9 3731 3742 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad de Costa Rica: Repositorio Kérwá |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcostarica |
language |
English |
topic |
Seasonal climate prediction Central America Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature Canonical correlation analysis Heavy rainfall events |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal climate prediction Central America Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature Canonical correlation analysis Heavy rainfall events Maldonado Mora, Tito José Alfaro Martínez, Eric J. Rutgersson, Anna Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
topic_facet |
Seasonal climate prediction Central America Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature Canonical correlation analysis Heavy rainfall events |
description |
We explored the relationship between the precipitation anomalies during May to June as the first peak of the rainy season in the Pacific slope of Central America, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the surrounding oceans, using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). With this approach, we studied variations in total precipitation, frequency of rainy days and the monthly occurrence of days with rainfall above (below) the 80th (20th) percentile, due to changes in the nearby SST. Composites of the sea-level pressure (SLP), geopotential heights (200 hPa), relative humidity (700 hPa), horizontal moisture flux and wind at 850 hPa were estimated to provide a dynamical analysis. The composites are calculated using the information obtained with CCA. In addition, we used a general circulation model forced with fixed SST to explore the sensitivity of the model to the SST patterns found using CCA. The results show that the SST over the tropical North Atlantic controls the precipitation fluctuations at interannual scales, due to its connection with the tropical upper tropospheric trough. Warmer (colder) temperatures result in SLP below normal in the Caribbean region, associated with an increase in the heights at 200 hPa. This vertical configuration reduces the wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa and increases the input of humidity to mid-levels, creating favourable conditions for deep convection, and favouring the generation of tropical cyclone activity. In the Pacific, a positive anomalous low-level moisture flux is observed from the ocean to the continental parts of the region and may enhance the formation of mesoscale systems. The classic prediction schemes show a lead time of 1 or 2 months; this is an advantage for climate services operative work. The atmospheric model outcomes replicate the main results found in the composite analysis, reflecting its potential use for model output statistics predictive schemes. Universidad de Uppsala/[54100006]//Suecia Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa ... |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Maldonado Mora, Tito José Alfaro Martínez, Eric J. Rutgersson, Anna Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto |
author_facet |
Maldonado Mora, Tito José Alfaro Martínez, Eric J. Rutgersson, Anna Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto |
author_sort |
Maldonado Mora, Tito José |
title |
The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
title_short |
The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
title_full |
The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
title_fullStr |
The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
title_full_unstemmed |
The early rainy season in Central America: the role of thetropical North Atlantic SSTs |
title_sort |
early rainy season in central america: the role of thetropical north atlantic ssts |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10669/74091 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4958/abstract;jsessionid=978AE674CA53C7EE82F12C752FA7FAB8.f01t02 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4958 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.617,-62.617,-66.733,-66.733) |
geographic |
Pacific Suecia |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Suecia |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, Núm. 9, 2016 |
op_relation |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4958/abstract;jsessionid=978AE674CA53C7EE82F12C752FA7FAB8.f01t02 1097-0088 https://hdl.handle.net/10669/74091 doi:10.1002/joc.4958 805-B0-065 805-B0-130 805-A9-532 805-B3-600 805-B4-226 805-B4-227 805-B6-143 805-B5-296 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4958 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3731 |
op_container_end_page |
3742 |
_version_ |
1766127602267848704 |