Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population
Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quant...
Published in: | Oikos |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2019
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06146 |
id |
ftunivcollcork:oai:cora.ucc.ie:10468/8744 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University College Cork, Ireland: Cork Open Research Archive (CORA) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcollcork |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Dynamic state variable modelling Marine mammals Population consequences of disturbance Synergistic effects vital rates |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Dynamic state variable modelling Marine mammals Population consequences of disturbance Synergistic effects vital rates Pirotta, Enrico Mangel, Marc Costa, Daniel P. Goldbogen, Jeremy Harwood, John Hin, Vincent Irvine, Ladd M. Mate, Bruce R. McHuron, Elizabeth A. Palacios, Daniel M. Schwarz, Lisa K. New, Leslie Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
topic_facet |
Climate change Dynamic state variable modelling Marine mammals Population consequences of disturbance Synergistic effects vital rates |
description |
Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population-level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long-lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pirotta, Enrico Mangel, Marc Costa, Daniel P. Goldbogen, Jeremy Harwood, John Hin, Vincent Irvine, Ladd M. Mate, Bruce R. McHuron, Elizabeth A. Palacios, Daniel M. Schwarz, Lisa K. New, Leslie |
author_facet |
Pirotta, Enrico Mangel, Marc Costa, Daniel P. Goldbogen, Jeremy Harwood, John Hin, Vincent Irvine, Ladd M. Mate, Bruce R. McHuron, Elizabeth A. Palacios, Daniel M. Schwarz, Lisa K. New, Leslie |
author_sort |
Pirotta, Enrico |
title |
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
title_short |
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
title_full |
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
title_sort |
anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06146 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Balaenoptera musculus |
genre_facet |
Balaenoptera musculus |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/Directorate for Mathematical & Physical Sciences::Division of Physics/8958074/US/Presidential Young Investigator Award: Program of Electromagnetic Nuclear Physics with Polarized Targets./ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7::SP2::ERC/322814/EU/Eco-evolutionary dynamics of community self-organization through ontogenetic asymmetry/ECOEVODEVO https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/oik.06146 Pirotta, E., Mangel, M., Costa, D. P., Goldbogen, J., Harwood, J., Hin, V., Irvine, L. M., Mate, B. R., McHuron, E. A., Palacios, D. M., Schwarz, L. K. and New, L. (2019) 'Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population', Oikos, 128(9), pp. 1340-1357. DOI:10.1111/oik.06146 doi:10.1111/oik.06146 1600-0706 1357 0030-1299 9 Oikos 1340 http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744 128 |
op_rights |
©2019 The Authors Oikos published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06146 |
container_title |
Oikos |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1340 |
op_container_end_page |
1357 |
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1775349444731994112 |
spelling |
ftunivcollcork:oai:cora.ucc.ie:10468/8744 2023-08-27T04:08:37+02:00 Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population Pirotta, Enrico Mangel, Marc Costa, Daniel P. Goldbogen, Jeremy Harwood, John Hin, Vincent Irvine, Ladd M. Mate, Bruce R. McHuron, Elizabeth A. Palacios, Daniel M. Schwarz, Lisa K. New, Leslie 2019-08-30 application/pdf application/zip http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06146 en eng Wiley info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/Directorate for Mathematical & Physical Sciences::Division of Physics/8958074/US/Presidential Young Investigator Award: Program of Electromagnetic Nuclear Physics with Polarized Targets./ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7::SP2::ERC/322814/EU/Eco-evolutionary dynamics of community self-organization through ontogenetic asymmetry/ECOEVODEVO https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/oik.06146 Pirotta, E., Mangel, M., Costa, D. P., Goldbogen, J., Harwood, J., Hin, V., Irvine, L. M., Mate, B. R., McHuron, E. A., Palacios, D. M., Schwarz, L. K. and New, L. (2019) 'Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population', Oikos, 128(9), pp. 1340-1357. DOI:10.1111/oik.06146 doi:10.1111/oik.06146 1600-0706 1357 0030-1299 9 Oikos 1340 http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744 128 ©2019 The Authors Oikos published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Climate change Dynamic state variable modelling Marine mammals Population consequences of disturbance Synergistic effects vital rates Article (peer-reviewed) 2019 ftunivcollcork https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.06146 2023-08-06T14:31:30Z Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population-level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long-lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Balaenoptera musculus University College Cork, Ireland: Cork Open Research Archive (CORA) Pacific Oikos 128 9 1340 1357 |