Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensui...
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ftunivcmadrid:oai:www.ucm.es:44322 2023-05-15T16:27:21+02:00 Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, Gilles Charbit, Sylvie Vrac, Mathieu Moise Famien, Adjoua Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, Didier Dumas, Christophe Gemenne, François Álvarez Solas, Jorge Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul 2017-06-20 application/pdf https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/ https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/1/alvarezsolas09posprint.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 en eng National Academy of Sciences https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/1/alvarezsolas09posprint.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Astrofísica Astronomía info:eu-repo/semantics/article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivcmadrid https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 2022-05-12T20:04:54Z The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM): E-Prints Complutense Greenland Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 25 6533 6538 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM): E-Prints Complutense |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcmadrid |
language |
English |
topic |
Astrofísica Astronomía |
spellingShingle |
Astrofísica Astronomía Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, Gilles Charbit, Sylvie Vrac, Mathieu Moise Famien, Adjoua Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, Didier Dumas, Christophe Gemenne, François Álvarez Solas, Jorge Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
topic_facet |
Astrofísica Astronomía |
description |
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, Gilles Charbit, Sylvie Vrac, Mathieu Moise Famien, Adjoua Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, Didier Dumas, Christophe Gemenne, François Álvarez Solas, Jorge Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul |
author_facet |
Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, Gilles Charbit, Sylvie Vrac, Mathieu Moise Famien, Adjoua Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, Didier Dumas, Christophe Gemenne, François Álvarez Solas, Jorge Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul |
author_sort |
Defrance, Dimitri |
title |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_short |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_fullStr |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_sort |
consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the sahelian population vulnerability |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/ https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/1/alvarezsolas09posprint.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/44322/1/alvarezsolas09posprint.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
114 |
container_issue |
25 |
container_start_page |
6533 |
op_container_end_page |
6538 |
_version_ |
1766016511697223680 |