Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate
© Author(s) 2023. This work was funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research as part of the KoPf-Synthese project (BMBF grant no. 03F0834C), by the German Research Foundation as part of the CLICCS Clusters of Excellence (DFG EXC 2037), and by the European Research Council (ERC) under the...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
European Geosciences Union
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/87412 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 https://www.egu.eu/ |
id |
ftunivcmadrid:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/87412 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivcmadrid:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/87412 2023-10-29T02:32:54+01:00 Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate De Vresse, Philip Georgievski, Goran González Rouco, Jesús Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Julius Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor 2023-05-23 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/87412 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 https://www.egu.eu/ eng eng European Geosciences Union 03F0834C EXC 2037 951288 De Vrese P, Li C, Ekici A, et al. Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate. The Cryosphere [Internet]. 2022 [cited 2022 Aug 9];16(3):1047-1067. Available from: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1047-2022 doi:10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 https://www.egu.eu/ https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/87412 Attribution 4.0 International open access http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 550.3 Ice-Wedge Degradation High-Latitude Polygonal Tundra Carbon Dynamics Organic-Matter Land-Surface Uncertainty Emissions Geofísica 2299 Otras Especialidades Físicas journal article VoR 2023 ftunivcmadrid https://doi.org/20.500.14352/8741210.5194/tc-17-2095-202310.5194/tc-16-1047-2022 2023-10-03T23:11:18Z © Author(s) 2023. This work was funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research as part of the KoPf-Synthese project (BMBF grant no. 03F0834C), by the German Research Foundation as part of the CLICCS Clusters of Excellence (DFG EXC 2037), and by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European nion’s 691 Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 951288, Q-Arctic). The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is the representation of terrestrial processes in permafrost-affected regions, which are often governed by spatial heterogeneity far below the resolution of the models' land surface components. Here, we use the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to investigate how different plausible assumptions for the representation of permafrost hydrology modulate land-atmosphere interactions and how the resulting feedbacks affect not only the regional and global climate, but also our ability to predict whether the high latitudes will become wetter or drier in a warmer future. Focusing on two idealized setups that induce comparatively "wet" or "dry" conditions in regions that are presently affected by permafrost, we find that the parameter settings determine the direction of the 21st-century trend in the simulated soil water content and result in substantial differences in the land-atmosphere exchange of energy and moisture. The latter leads to differences in the simulated cloud cover during spring and summer and thus in the planetary energy uptake. The respective effects are so pronounced that uncertainties in the representation of the Arctic hydrological cycle can help to explain a large fraction of the inter-model spread in regional surface temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, they affect a range of components of the Earth ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere Tundra wedge* Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM): E-Prints Complutense |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM): E-Prints Complutense |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcmadrid |
language |
English |
topic |
550.3 Ice-Wedge Degradation High-Latitude Polygonal Tundra Carbon Dynamics Organic-Matter Land-Surface Uncertainty Emissions Geofísica 2299 Otras Especialidades Físicas |
spellingShingle |
550.3 Ice-Wedge Degradation High-Latitude Polygonal Tundra Carbon Dynamics Organic-Matter Land-Surface Uncertainty Emissions Geofísica 2299 Otras Especialidades Físicas De Vresse, Philip Georgievski, Goran González Rouco, Jesús Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Julius Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
topic_facet |
550.3 Ice-Wedge Degradation High-Latitude Polygonal Tundra Carbon Dynamics Organic-Matter Land-Surface Uncertainty Emissions Geofísica 2299 Otras Especialidades Físicas |
description |
© Author(s) 2023. This work was funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research as part of the KoPf-Synthese project (BMBF grant no. 03F0834C), by the German Research Foundation as part of the CLICCS Clusters of Excellence (DFG EXC 2037), and by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European nion’s 691 Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 951288, Q-Arctic). The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is the representation of terrestrial processes in permafrost-affected regions, which are often governed by spatial heterogeneity far below the resolution of the models' land surface components. Here, we use the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to investigate how different plausible assumptions for the representation of permafrost hydrology modulate land-atmosphere interactions and how the resulting feedbacks affect not only the regional and global climate, but also our ability to predict whether the high latitudes will become wetter or drier in a warmer future. Focusing on two idealized setups that induce comparatively "wet" or "dry" conditions in regions that are presently affected by permafrost, we find that the parameter settings determine the direction of the 21st-century trend in the simulated soil water content and result in substantial differences in the land-atmosphere exchange of energy and moisture. The latter leads to differences in the simulated cloud cover during spring and summer and thus in the planetary energy uptake. The respective effects are so pronounced that uncertainties in the representation of the Arctic hydrological cycle can help to explain a large fraction of the inter-model spread in regional surface temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, they affect a range of components of the Earth ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
De Vresse, Philip Georgievski, Goran González Rouco, Jesús Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Julius Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor |
author_facet |
De Vresse, Philip Georgievski, Goran González Rouco, Jesús Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Julius Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor |
author_sort |
De Vresse, Philip |
title |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
title_short |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
title_full |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
title_fullStr |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
title_sort |
representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/87412 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 https://www.egu.eu/ |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere Tundra wedge* |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere Tundra wedge* |
op_relation |
03F0834C EXC 2037 951288 De Vrese P, Li C, Ekici A, et al. Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate. The Cryosphere [Internet]. 2022 [cited 2022 Aug 9];16(3):1047-1067. Available from: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1047-2022 doi:10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 https://www.egu.eu/ https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/87412 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International open access http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.14352/8741210.5194/tc-17-2095-202310.5194/tc-16-1047-2022 |
_version_ |
1781054833782947840 |