Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models
This article belongs to the Collection Econometric Analysis of Climate Change. We use data on the following climate variables for the period of the last 798 thousand years: global ice volume (Icet), atmospheric carbon dioxide level (CO2,t), and Antarctic land surface temperature (Tempt). Those varia...
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ftunivcarlosmadr:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/37557 2024-01-21T10:01:10+01:00 Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models Blazsek, Szabolcs Escribano, Álvaro Comunidad de Madrid Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) 2022-03 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/37557 https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 eng eng MDPI Gobierno de España. MDM-2014-0431 Comunidad de Madrid. S2015/HUM-3444 Gobierno de España. RTI2018-101371-B-I00 Blazsek, S., & Escribano, A. (2022). Robust Estimation and Forecasting of Climate Change Using Score-Driven Ice-Age Models. Econometrics, 10(1), 9. 2225-1146 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/37557 https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 1 1, 9 29 Econometrics 10 AR/0000031239 © 2022 by the authors. Atribución 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ open access Antarctic land surface temperature Atmospheric Co2 Climate change Dynamic conditional score Generalized autoregressive score Global ice volume Ice-ages and inter-glacial periods Economía Estadística Informática Matemáticas Medio Ambiente research article VoR 2022 ftunivcarlosmadr https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 2023-12-27T00:20:56Z This article belongs to the Collection Econometric Analysis of Climate Change. We use data on the following climate variables for the period of the last 798 thousand years: global ice volume (Icet), atmospheric carbon dioxide level (CO2,t), and Antarctic land surface temperature (Tempt). Those variables are cyclical and are driven by the following strongly exogenous orbital variables: eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit, obliquity, and precession of the equinox. We introduce score-driven ice-age models which use robust filters of the conditional mean and variance, generalizing the updating mechanism and solving the misspecification of a recent climate–econometric model (benchmark ice-age model). The score-driven models control for omitted exogenous variables and extreme events, using more general dynamic structures and heteroskedasticity. We find that the score-driven models improve the performance of the benchmark ice-age model. We provide out-of-sample forecasts of the climate variables for the last 100 thousand years. We show that during the last 10–15 thousand years of the forecasting period, for which humanity influenced the Earth’s climate, (i) the forecasts of Icet are above the observed Icet, (ii) the forecasts of CO2,t level are below the observed CO2,t, and (iii) the forecasts of Tempt are below the observed Tempt. The forecasts for the benchmark ice-age model are reinforced by the score-driven models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo Antarctic Econometrics 10 1 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcarlosmadr |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic land surface temperature Atmospheric Co2 Climate change Dynamic conditional score Generalized autoregressive score Global ice volume Ice-ages and inter-glacial periods Economía Estadística Informática Matemáticas Medio Ambiente |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic land surface temperature Atmospheric Co2 Climate change Dynamic conditional score Generalized autoregressive score Global ice volume Ice-ages and inter-glacial periods Economía Estadística Informática Matemáticas Medio Ambiente Blazsek, Szabolcs Escribano, Álvaro Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
topic_facet |
Antarctic land surface temperature Atmospheric Co2 Climate change Dynamic conditional score Generalized autoregressive score Global ice volume Ice-ages and inter-glacial periods Economía Estadística Informática Matemáticas Medio Ambiente |
description |
This article belongs to the Collection Econometric Analysis of Climate Change. We use data on the following climate variables for the period of the last 798 thousand years: global ice volume (Icet), atmospheric carbon dioxide level (CO2,t), and Antarctic land surface temperature (Tempt). Those variables are cyclical and are driven by the following strongly exogenous orbital variables: eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit, obliquity, and precession of the equinox. We introduce score-driven ice-age models which use robust filters of the conditional mean and variance, generalizing the updating mechanism and solving the misspecification of a recent climate–econometric model (benchmark ice-age model). The score-driven models control for omitted exogenous variables and extreme events, using more general dynamic structures and heteroskedasticity. We find that the score-driven models improve the performance of the benchmark ice-age model. We provide out-of-sample forecasts of the climate variables for the last 100 thousand years. We show that during the last 10–15 thousand years of the forecasting period, for which humanity influenced the Earth’s climate, (i) the forecasts of Icet are above the observed Icet, (ii) the forecasts of CO2,t level are below the observed CO2,t, and (iii) the forecasts of Tempt are below the observed Tempt. The forecasts for the benchmark ice-age model are reinforced by the score-driven models. |
author2 |
Comunidad de Madrid Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Blazsek, Szabolcs Escribano, Álvaro |
author_facet |
Blazsek, Szabolcs Escribano, Álvaro |
author_sort |
Blazsek, Szabolcs |
title |
Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
title_short |
Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
title_full |
Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
title_fullStr |
Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
title_sort |
robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/37557 https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Gobierno de España. MDM-2014-0431 Comunidad de Madrid. S2015/HUM-3444 Gobierno de España. RTI2018-101371-B-I00 Blazsek, S., & Escribano, A. (2022). Robust Estimation and Forecasting of Climate Change Using Score-Driven Ice-Age Models. Econometrics, 10(1), 9. 2225-1146 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/37557 https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 1 1, 9 29 Econometrics 10 AR/0000031239 |
op_rights |
© 2022 by the authors. Atribución 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ open access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010009 |
container_title |
Econometrics |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
9 |
_version_ |
1788690974069751808 |