Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica
In order to understand the future behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonline...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Report |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10016/23812 |
id |
ftunivcarlosmadr:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/23812 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivcarlosmadr:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/23812 2024-01-21T10:01:26+01:00 Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica Gómez Díaz, Mario Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. Carmen Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística 2016-10 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10016/23812 eng eng UC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometrics 16-12 2387-0303 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/23812 DT/0000001487 Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ open access Glacier discharge Vine copula Prediction Meteorological Finite mixtures working paper AO 2016 ftunivcarlosmadr 2023-12-27T00:17:37Z In order to understand the future behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and other related meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation. The multivariate distribution of these variables is divided in four cases according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each different case is modelled with a vine copula. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution for the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods for the future values of the discharge are used and compared. The proposed methodology is applied to a large database collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica. Seasonal effects are included by using different parameters for each season. We have found that the proposed vine copula model outperforms a previous work where we only used the temperature to predict the glacier discharge using a time- varying bivariate copula. Report Antarc* Antarctica King George Island Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo King George Island |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcarlosmadr |
language |
English |
topic |
Glacier discharge Vine copula Prediction Meteorological Finite mixtures |
spellingShingle |
Glacier discharge Vine copula Prediction Meteorological Finite mixtures Gómez Díaz, Mario Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. Carmen Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Glacier discharge Vine copula Prediction Meteorological Finite mixtures |
description |
In order to understand the future behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and other related meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation. The multivariate distribution of these variables is divided in four cases according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each different case is modelled with a vine copula. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution for the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods for the future values of the discharge are used and compared. The proposed methodology is applied to a large database collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica. Seasonal effects are included by using different parameters for each season. We have found that the proposed vine copula model outperforms a previous work where we only used the temperature to predict the glacier discharge using a time- varying bivariate copula. |
author2 |
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística |
format |
Report |
author |
Gómez Díaz, Mario Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. Carmen |
author_facet |
Gómez Díaz, Mario Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. Carmen |
author_sort |
Gómez Díaz, Mario |
title |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_short |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_sort |
vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at king george island, antarctica |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/23812 |
geographic |
King George Island |
geographic_facet |
King George Island |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica King George Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica King George Island |
op_relation |
UC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometrics 16-12 2387-0303 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/23812 DT/0000001487 |
op_rights |
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ open access |
_version_ |
1788691342499512320 |