Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experim...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Report |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10016/21089 |
id |
ftunivcarlosmadr:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/21089 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivcarlosmadr:oai:e-archivo.uc3m.es:10016/21089 2024-01-21T09:59:59+01:00 Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica Gómez, M. Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística 2015-06-01 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10016/21089 eng eng UC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometrics 15-13 2387-0303 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/21089 DT/0000001376 ws1513 Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ open access Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling MCMC working paper SMUR 2015 ftunivcarlosmadr 2023-12-27T00:16:36Z Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Watersheds at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual twostep approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to hard meteorological conditions. Report Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo King George Island Collins Glacier ENVELOPE(65.308,65.308,-73.829,-73.829) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid: e-Archivo |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcarlosmadr |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling MCMC |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling MCMC Gómez, M. Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling MCMC |
description |
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Watersheds at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual twostep approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to hard meteorological conditions. |
author2 |
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística |
format |
Report |
author |
Gómez, M. Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. |
author_facet |
Gómez, M. Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. |
author_sort |
Gómez, M. |
title |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_short |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_sort |
seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at king george island, antarctica |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10016/21089 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(65.308,65.308,-73.829,-73.829) |
geographic |
King George Island Collins Glacier |
geographic_facet |
King George Island Collins Glacier |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island |
op_relation |
UC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometrics 15-13 2387-0303 http://hdl.handle.net/10016/21089 DT/0000001376 ws1513 |
op_rights |
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ open access |
_version_ |
1788701293617872896 |