Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost
An increase in Arctic shallow landsliding is a potential consequence of climate warming. Warmer summer-air temperatures and larger rainfall events drive heat into the active layer, melting ice and decreasing soil shear stress. Topography has the potential to exacerbate landsliding by controlling the...
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ftunivcardiff:oai:https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk:142321 2023-12-17T10:23:29+01:00 Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost Mithan, H. T. Hales, T. C. Cleall, P. J. 2021-07-16 application/pdf https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf en eng Wiley https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf Mithan, H. T., Hales, T. C. https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A1216690.html orcid:0000-0002-3330-3302 orcid:0000-0002-3330-3302 and Cleall, P. J. https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A011150D.html orcid:0000-0002-4005-5319 orcid:0000-0002-4005-5319 2021. Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (13) , e2020GL092264. 10.1029/2020GL092264 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 file https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf doi:10.1029/2020GL092264 Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivcardiff https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 2023-11-23T23:34:32Z An increase in Arctic shallow landsliding is a potential consequence of climate warming. Warmer summer-air temperatures and larger rainfall events drive heat into the active layer, melting ice and decreasing soil shear stress. Topography has the potential to exacerbate landsliding by controlling the distribution of ground ice and the movement of water in the subsurface. We demonstrate that shallow Arctic landslides initiate in zero-order drainage basins consistent with models of shallow landsliding in non-permafrost environments. However, the low average slopes and low concavity of Arctic hillslopes cannot create pore-water pressures high enough to generate landsliding. Instead, two-dimensional slope stability modeling suggests that the vertical distribution of ground-ice distributions controls landslide susceptibility. High ground-ice concentrations close to the potential failure plane act as a stronger control than high average ice volumes or rapid thawing. Our results demonstrate that landslide susceptibility is strongly affected by topographic controls on ground ice and hydrology. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost Cardiff University: ORCA (Online Research @ Cardiff) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 13 |
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Open Polar |
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Cardiff University: ORCA (Online Research @ Cardiff) |
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ftunivcardiff |
language |
English |
description |
An increase in Arctic shallow landsliding is a potential consequence of climate warming. Warmer summer-air temperatures and larger rainfall events drive heat into the active layer, melting ice and decreasing soil shear stress. Topography has the potential to exacerbate landsliding by controlling the distribution of ground ice and the movement of water in the subsurface. We demonstrate that shallow Arctic landslides initiate in zero-order drainage basins consistent with models of shallow landsliding in non-permafrost environments. However, the low average slopes and low concavity of Arctic hillslopes cannot create pore-water pressures high enough to generate landsliding. Instead, two-dimensional slope stability modeling suggests that the vertical distribution of ground-ice distributions controls landslide susceptibility. High ground-ice concentrations close to the potential failure plane act as a stronger control than high average ice volumes or rapid thawing. Our results demonstrate that landslide susceptibility is strongly affected by topographic controls on ground ice and hydrology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mithan, H. T. Hales, T. C. Cleall, P. J. |
spellingShingle |
Mithan, H. T. Hales, T. C. Cleall, P. J. Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
author_facet |
Mithan, H. T. Hales, T. C. Cleall, P. J. |
author_sort |
Mithan, H. T. |
title |
Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
title_short |
Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
title_full |
Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
title_fullStr |
Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
title_full_unstemmed |
Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost |
title_sort |
topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing arctic permafrost |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ice permafrost |
op_relation |
https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf Mithan, H. T., Hales, T. C. https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A1216690.html orcid:0000-0002-3330-3302 orcid:0000-0002-3330-3302 and Cleall, P. J. https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A011150D.html orcid:0000-0002-4005-5319 orcid:0000-0002-4005-5319 2021. Topographic and ground-ice controls on shallow landsliding in thawing Arctic permafrost. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (13) , e2020GL092264. 10.1029/2020GL092264 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 file https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/142321/1/2020GL092264.pdf doi:10.1029/2020GL092264 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092264 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
13 |
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1785558158678163456 |