Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought
Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications
2019
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Online Access: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/ https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf |
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ftunivcardiff:oai:https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk:125041 2023-05-15T17:29:42+02:00 Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought Rust, William Holman, Ian Bloomfield, John Cuthbert, Mark Corstanje, Ron 2019-08-08 application/pdf https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/ https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf en eng European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf Rust, William, Holman, Ian, Bloomfield, John, Cuthbert, Mark https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A23100543.html orcid:0000-0001-6721-022X orcid:0000-0001-6721-022X and Corstanje, Ron 2019. Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions 23 (8) , pp. 3233-3245. 10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 file https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 cc_by CC-BY Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivcardiff https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 2022-10-27T22:48:09Z Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Cardiff University: ORCA (Online Research @ Cardiff) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23 8 3233 3245 |
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Cardiff University: ORCA (Online Research @ Cardiff) |
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English |
description |
Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rust, William Holman, Ian Bloomfield, John Cuthbert, Mark Corstanje, Ron |
spellingShingle |
Rust, William Holman, Ian Bloomfield, John Cuthbert, Mark Corstanje, Ron Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
author_facet |
Rust, William Holman, Ian Bloomfield, John Cuthbert, Mark Corstanje, Ron |
author_sort |
Rust, William |
title |
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
title_short |
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
title_full |
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
title_fullStr |
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
title_sort |
understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union (EGU) / Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/ https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf Rust, William, Holman, Ian, Bloomfield, John, Cuthbert, Mark https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/view/cardiffauthors/A23100543.html orcid:0000-0001-6721-022X orcid:0000-0001-6721-022X and Corstanje, Ron 2019. Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions 23 (8) , pp. 3233-3245. 10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 file https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/125041/1/Rust_etal_HESS_2019_GWteleconnections.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3233 |
op_container_end_page |
3245 |
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1766124476282437632 |