Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity
For stochastic future recruitment and for annual catch levels of 0, 200 and 400 tonnes, the median of the spawning biomass estimates for the New Base case model drops initially, but returns to its current level within a decade. For higher catch levels of 543 and 643 tonnes, the median of the spawnin...
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ftunivcapetownir:oai:localhost:11427/30762 2023-05-15T18:03:27+02:00 Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity Brandão, Anabela Butterworth, Doug S 2019 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30762 https://open.uct.ac.za/bitstream/11427/30762/1/FISHERIES_2019_OCT_SWG-DEM_33%20Toothfish%20stochastic%20projections.pdf eng eng Faculty of Science Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30762 https://open.uct.ac.za/bitstream/11427/30762/1/FISHERIES_2019_OCT_SWG-DEM_33%20Toothfish%20stochastic%20projections.pdf Report 2019 ftunivcapetownir 2022-09-13T05:52:50Z For stochastic future recruitment and for annual catch levels of 0, 200 and 400 tonnes, the median of the spawning biomass estimates for the New Base case model drops initially, but returns to its current level within a decade. For higher catch levels of 543 and 643 tonnes, the median of the spawning biomass estimates return to current levels within only 15 and 20 years respectively. However, for variants of this model that attempt to improve the fit to the trotline CPUE or which adjust the projected recruitments to reflect a possible regime shift, it is only annual catches of 200 tonnes that maintain the spawning biomass above its current level at the end of a 20 year period. This suggests that consideration should perhaps be given to recommending some decrease in the present annual TAC of 543 tonnes. Report Prince Edward Islands University of Cape Town: OpenUCT Tac ENVELOPE(-59.517,-59.517,-62.500,-62.500) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Cape Town: OpenUCT |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcapetownir |
language |
English |
description |
For stochastic future recruitment and for annual catch levels of 0, 200 and 400 tonnes, the median of the spawning biomass estimates for the New Base case model drops initially, but returns to its current level within a decade. For higher catch levels of 543 and 643 tonnes, the median of the spawning biomass estimates return to current levels within only 15 and 20 years respectively. However, for variants of this model that attempt to improve the fit to the trotline CPUE or which adjust the projected recruitments to reflect a possible regime shift, it is only annual catches of 200 tonnes that maintain the spawning biomass above its current level at the end of a 20 year period. This suggests that consideration should perhaps be given to recommending some decrease in the present annual TAC of 543 tonnes. |
format |
Report |
author |
Brandão, Anabela Butterworth, Doug S |
spellingShingle |
Brandão, Anabela Butterworth, Doug S Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
author_facet |
Brandão, Anabela Butterworth, Doug S |
author_sort |
Brandão, Anabela |
title |
Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
title_short |
Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
title_full |
Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity |
title_sort |
stochastic projections for the 2019 assessment of the toothfish (dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the prince edward islands vicinity |
publisher |
Faculty of Science |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30762 https://open.uct.ac.za/bitstream/11427/30762/1/FISHERIES_2019_OCT_SWG-DEM_33%20Toothfish%20stochastic%20projections.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.517,-59.517,-62.500,-62.500) |
geographic |
Tac |
geographic_facet |
Tac |
genre |
Prince Edward Islands |
genre_facet |
Prince Edward Islands |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30762 https://open.uct.ac.za/bitstream/11427/30762/1/FISHERIES_2019_OCT_SWG-DEM_33%20Toothfish%20stochastic%20projections.pdf |
_version_ |
1766174307971497984 |