Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic prec...
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ftunivcanter:oai:ir.canterbury.ac.nz:10092/105812 2024-02-11T10:05:24+01:00 Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes Ardid A Caudron C Cronin S Dempsey, David 2023-06-08T20:51:56Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10092/105812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y en eng Ardid, A., Dempsey, D., Caudron, C. et al. Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes. Nature Communications 13, 2002 (2022). https://hdl.handle.net/10092/105812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651 Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3706 - Geophysics Fields of Research::40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400506 - Earthquake engineering Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3705 - Geology Journal Article 2023 ftunivcanter https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y 2024-01-16T18:25:09Z Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Alaska University of Canterbury, Christchurch: UC Research Repository New Zealand Nature Communications 13 1 |
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University of Canterbury, Christchurch: UC Research Repository |
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ftunivcanter |
language |
English |
topic |
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3706 - Geophysics Fields of Research::40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400506 - Earthquake engineering Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3705 - Geology |
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Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3706 - Geophysics Fields of Research::40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400506 - Earthquake engineering Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3705 - Geology Ardid A Caudron C Cronin S Dempsey, David Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
topic_facet |
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3706 - Geophysics Fields of Research::40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400506 - Earthquake engineering Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3705 - Geology |
description |
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ardid A Caudron C Cronin S Dempsey, David |
author_facet |
Ardid A Caudron C Cronin S Dempsey, David |
author_sort |
Ardid A |
title |
Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_short |
Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_full |
Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_fullStr |
Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seismic Precursors to the Whakaari 2019 Phreatic Eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_sort |
seismic precursors to the whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10092/105812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
geographic |
New Zealand |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand |
genre |
Kamchatka Alaska |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka Alaska |
op_relation |
Ardid, A., Dempsey, D., Caudron, C. et al. Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes. Nature Communications 13, 2002 (2022). https://hdl.handle.net/10092/105812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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13 |
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1 |
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1790602436586504192 |