Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models
The tropospheric westerly jet is a key feature of Southern Hemisphere climate. In recent decades the jet strengthened in austral summer (December–February [DJF]) and moved poleward owing to the Antarctic ozone hole. Future jet trends will be influenced by recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and gre...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10092/103600 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 |
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ftunivcanter:oai:ir.canterbury.ac.nz:10092/103600 2023-05-15T13:49:08+02:00 Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models Robertson F Douglas H Morgenstern O Frame D Revell, Laura 2022-03-21T04:35:12Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10092/103600 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) Revell LE, Robertson F, Douglas H, Morgenstern O, Frame D (2022). Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models. Geophysical Research Letters. 49(6). 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://hdl.handle.net/10092/103600 http://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 All rights reserved unless otherwise stated http://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651 Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370109 - Tropospheric and stratospheric physics Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3702 - Climate change science::370201 - Climate change processes Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition chemistry and processes Journal Article 2022 ftunivcanter https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 2022-09-08T13:39:25Z The tropospheric westerly jet is a key feature of Southern Hemisphere climate. In recent decades the jet strengthened in austral summer (December–February [DJF]) and moved poleward owing to the Antarctic ozone hole. Future jet trends will be influenced by recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, we examine 21st century projections of ozone, temperature and winds in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. NOCHEM models use an ozone data set that was produced with GHG forcings inconsistent with those used by CHEM models, leading to less ozone recovery in the Antarctic springtime lower stratosphere. This propagates to different stratospheric temperature projections and DJF westerly winds: NOCHEM models project a 78 ± 52% stronger increase in DJF westerly wind speeds than CHEM models under the high GHG emissions scenario SSP585. Our results show the importance of simulating stratospheric ozone accurately for Southern Hemisphere climate change projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic University of Canterbury, Christchurch: UC Research Repository Antarctic Austral The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 49 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Canterbury, Christchurch: UC Research Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcanter |
language |
English |
topic |
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370109 - Tropospheric and stratospheric physics Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3702 - Climate change science::370201 - Climate change processes Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition chemistry and processes |
spellingShingle |
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370109 - Tropospheric and stratospheric physics Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3702 - Climate change science::370201 - Climate change processes Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition chemistry and processes Robertson F Douglas H Morgenstern O Frame D Revell, Laura Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370109 - Tropospheric and stratospheric physics Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3702 - Climate change science::370201 - Climate change processes Fields of Research::37 - Earth sciences::3701 - Atmospheric sciences::370104 - Atmospheric composition chemistry and processes |
description |
The tropospheric westerly jet is a key feature of Southern Hemisphere climate. In recent decades the jet strengthened in austral summer (December–February [DJF]) and moved poleward owing to the Antarctic ozone hole. Future jet trends will be influenced by recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, we examine 21st century projections of ozone, temperature and winds in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. NOCHEM models use an ozone data set that was produced with GHG forcings inconsistent with those used by CHEM models, leading to less ozone recovery in the Antarctic springtime lower stratosphere. This propagates to different stratospheric temperature projections and DJF westerly winds: NOCHEM models project a 78 ± 52% stronger increase in DJF westerly wind speeds than CHEM models under the high GHG emissions scenario SSP585. Our results show the importance of simulating stratospheric ozone accurately for Southern Hemisphere climate change projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Robertson F Douglas H Morgenstern O Frame D Revell, Laura |
author_facet |
Robertson F Douglas H Morgenstern O Frame D Revell, Laura |
author_sort |
Robertson F |
title |
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
influence of ozone forcing on 21st century southern hemisphere surface westerlies in cmip6 models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10092/103600 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 |
geographic |
Antarctic Austral The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Austral The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Revell LE, Robertson F, Douglas H, Morgenstern O, Frame D (2022). Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models. Geophysical Research Letters. 49(6). 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://hdl.handle.net/10092/103600 http://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 |
op_rights |
All rights reserved unless otherwise stated http://hdl.handle.net/10092/17651 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098252 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1766250899614728192 |