Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach
Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
John Wiley & Sons
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10902/13108 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367 |
id |
ftunivcantabria:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/13108 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivcantabria:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/13108 2023-05-15T17:35:55+02:00 Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio Murray, A. Brad Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier Moore, Laura J. Farley, Graham Wood, James Universidad de Cantabria 2018-02 http://hdl.handle.net/10902/13108 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367 eng eng John Wiley & Sons http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JF004367/abstract 2169-9011 2169-9003 BIA2014-59643-R http://hdl.handle.net/10902/13108 doi:10.1002/2017JF004367 © American Geophysical Union (AGU) openAccess Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123 info:eu-repo/semantics/article publishedVersion 2018 ftunivcantabria https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367 2023-02-20T10:27:56Z Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios. This work was partially funded by the “U.S. National Science Foundation, Coupled Natural Human Systems Program.” J. A. A. Antolínez is indebted to the MEC (Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, Spain) for the funding provided in the FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) studentship (BOE-A-2013-12235). J. A. A. Antolínez and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Universidad de Cantabria: UCrea Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 2 229 251 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad de Cantabria: UCrea |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcantabria |
language |
English |
description |
Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios. This work was partially funded by the “U.S. National Science Foundation, Coupled Natural Human Systems Program.” J. A. A. Antolínez is indebted to the MEC (Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, Spain) for the funding provided in the FPU (Formación del Profesorado Universitario) studentship (BOE-A-2013-12235). J. A. A. Antolínez and ... |
author2 |
Universidad de Cantabria |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio Murray, A. Brad Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier Moore, Laura J. Farley, Graham Wood, James |
spellingShingle |
Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio Murray, A. Brad Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier Moore, Laura J. Farley, Graham Wood, James Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
author_facet |
Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio Murray, A. Brad Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier Moore, Laura J. Farley, Graham Wood, James |
author_sort |
Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio |
title |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_short |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_full |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_fullStr |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach |
title_sort |
downscaling changing coastlines in a changing climate: the hybrid approach |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10902/13108 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123 |
op_relation |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JF004367/abstract 2169-9011 2169-9003 BIA2014-59643-R http://hdl.handle.net/10902/13108 doi:10.1002/2017JF004367 |
op_rights |
© American Geophysical Union (AGU) openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
container_volume |
123 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
229 |
op_container_end_page |
251 |
_version_ |
1766135220505935872 |