Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries
Abstract: Objective: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design: Time series analysis. Setting: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants: Annual all cause...
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/330282 2023-07-30T04:04:24+02:00 Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben 2021-11-04T10:20:20Z text/xml application/pdf application/zip https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77723 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330282 en eng British Medical Journal Publishing Group BMJ doi:10.17863/CAM.77723 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330282 Research Article 2021 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77723 2023-07-10T21:45:49Z Abstract: Objective: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design: Time series analysis. Setting: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Main outcome measures: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. Results: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository New Zealand Norway |
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Research Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
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Research |
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Abstract: Objective: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Design: Time series analysis. Setting: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Participants: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Main outcome measures: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. Results: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben |
author_facet |
Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben |
author_sort |
Islam, Nazrul |
title |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_short |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_fullStr |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_sort |
effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
publisher |
British Medical Journal Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77723 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330282 |
geographic |
New Zealand Norway |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand Norway |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
doi:10.17863/CAM.77723 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330282 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77723 |
_version_ |
1772815815139131392 |