The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms
Over the past few decades, Arctic sea-ice extent has declined, while there has been an apparent increase in severe winter weather across some mid-latitude regions. This has led to much research into whether these trends are dynamically linked. It has been suggested that the link may involve the Arct...
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/307132 2024-01-21T10:03:04+01:00 The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms McKenna, Christine 2019-09-25 application/pdf https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/307132 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.54225 eng eng University of Cambridge Christs https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/307132 doi:10.17863/CAM.54225 All Rights Reserved https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/ Arctic sea-ice climate change climate variability climate modelling IGCM4 large-scale atmospheric circulation stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnections Rossby waves Arctic Oscillation mid-latitudes Thesis Doctoral Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) PhD in Applied Mathematics 2019 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.54225 2023-12-28T23:23:12Z Over the past few decades, Arctic sea-ice extent has declined, while there has been an apparent increase in severe winter weather across some mid-latitude regions. This has led to much research into whether these trends are dynamically linked. It has been suggested that the link may involve the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which describes the observed oscillation in geopotential height anomalies between high and middle Northern Hemisphere latitudes. Sea-ice loss has been shown to excite the AO's negative phase, which is linked to colder conditions in key regions of mid-latitudes, through various tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms. However, the nature of the response to Arctic sea-ice loss and the mechanisms involved remain uncertain. This is because it is difficult to disentangle the complex web of potential processes involved, the modelled response to sea-ice loss is small relative to internal climate variability, and modelling studies find contrasting climatological mean responses to imposed sea-ice loss. Since all climate models project a continuation of Arctic sea-ice loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, it is important that the potential influence of this on the highly populated mid-latitudes is better understood. In this thesis, the issues of complexity and statistical robustness are partly addressed by conducting idealised numerical modelling experiments using an intermediate complexity global circulation model, IGCM4. Such models are useful because they are complex enough to simulate a variety of important processes, but are relatively simple and computationally fast compared to full complexity state-of-the-art climate models. This helps to disentangle different processes from one another and allows for several-century-long simulations, making a statistically robust response more attainable. To understand the contrasting results of past modelling studies, it is firstly investigated whether the response to sea-ice loss is sensitive to the loss region (the ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Arctic Climate change Sea ice Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcam |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea-ice climate change climate variability climate modelling IGCM4 large-scale atmospheric circulation stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnections Rossby waves Arctic Oscillation mid-latitudes |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea-ice climate change climate variability climate modelling IGCM4 large-scale atmospheric circulation stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnections Rossby waves Arctic Oscillation mid-latitudes McKenna, Christine The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea-ice climate change climate variability climate modelling IGCM4 large-scale atmospheric circulation stratosphere-troposphere coupling teleconnections Rossby waves Arctic Oscillation mid-latitudes |
description |
Over the past few decades, Arctic sea-ice extent has declined, while there has been an apparent increase in severe winter weather across some mid-latitude regions. This has led to much research into whether these trends are dynamically linked. It has been suggested that the link may involve the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which describes the observed oscillation in geopotential height anomalies between high and middle Northern Hemisphere latitudes. Sea-ice loss has been shown to excite the AO's negative phase, which is linked to colder conditions in key regions of mid-latitudes, through various tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms. However, the nature of the response to Arctic sea-ice loss and the mechanisms involved remain uncertain. This is because it is difficult to disentangle the complex web of potential processes involved, the modelled response to sea-ice loss is small relative to internal climate variability, and modelling studies find contrasting climatological mean responses to imposed sea-ice loss. Since all climate models project a continuation of Arctic sea-ice loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, it is important that the potential influence of this on the highly populated mid-latitudes is better understood. In this thesis, the issues of complexity and statistical robustness are partly addressed by conducting idealised numerical modelling experiments using an intermediate complexity global circulation model, IGCM4. Such models are useful because they are complex enough to simulate a variety of important processes, but are relatively simple and computationally fast compared to full complexity state-of-the-art climate models. This helps to disentangle different processes from one another and allows for several-century-long simulations, making a statistically robust response more attainable. To understand the contrasting results of past modelling studies, it is firstly investigated whether the response to sea-ice loss is sensitive to the loss region (the ... |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
McKenna, Christine |
author_facet |
McKenna, Christine |
author_sort |
McKenna, Christine |
title |
The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
title_short |
The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
title_full |
The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
title_fullStr |
The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
title_full_unstemmed |
The influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
title_sort |
influence of arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate: exploring sensitivities and mechanisms |
publisher |
University of Cambridge |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/307132 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.54225 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/307132 doi:10.17863/CAM.54225 |
op_rights |
All Rights Reserved https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.54225 |
_version_ |
1788693331297959936 |