Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?
Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disa...
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/304137 2024-02-04T09:58:07+01:00 Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? Rees, W Gareth Hofgaard, Annika Boudreau, Stéphane Cairns, David M Harper, Karen Mamet, Steven Mathisen, Ingrid Swirad, Zuzanna Tutubalina, Olga 2020-07 Print-Electronic application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document application/pdf https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/304137 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.51222 eng eng Wiley http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15113 Glob Chang Biol https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/304137 doi:10.17863/CAM.51222 All rights reserved circumpolar forest advance climate change climate change velocity disappearing arctic tundra forest migration rate forest-tundra ecotone range expansion subarctic Alaska Arctic Regions Canada Forests Siberia Tundra Article 2020 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.51222 2024-01-11T23:34:08Z Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra Alaska Siberia Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository Arctic Canada |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcam |
language |
English |
topic |
circumpolar forest advance climate change climate change velocity disappearing arctic tundra forest migration rate forest-tundra ecotone range expansion subarctic Alaska Arctic Regions Canada Forests Siberia Tundra |
spellingShingle |
circumpolar forest advance climate change climate change velocity disappearing arctic tundra forest migration rate forest-tundra ecotone range expansion subarctic Alaska Arctic Regions Canada Forests Siberia Tundra Rees, W Gareth Hofgaard, Annika Boudreau, Stéphane Cairns, David M Harper, Karen Mamet, Steven Mathisen, Ingrid Swirad, Zuzanna Tutubalina, Olga Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
topic_facet |
circumpolar forest advance climate change climate change velocity disappearing arctic tundra forest migration rate forest-tundra ecotone range expansion subarctic Alaska Arctic Regions Canada Forests Siberia Tundra |
description |
Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rees, W Gareth Hofgaard, Annika Boudreau, Stéphane Cairns, David M Harper, Karen Mamet, Steven Mathisen, Ingrid Swirad, Zuzanna Tutubalina, Olga |
author_facet |
Rees, W Gareth Hofgaard, Annika Boudreau, Stéphane Cairns, David M Harper, Karen Mamet, Steven Mathisen, Ingrid Swirad, Zuzanna Tutubalina, Olga |
author_sort |
Rees, W Gareth |
title |
Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
title_short |
Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
title_full |
Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
title_fullStr |
Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
title_sort |
is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/304137 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.51222 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Tundra Alaska Siberia |
op_relation |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/304137 doi:10.17863/CAM.51222 |
op_rights |
All rights reserved |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.51222 |
_version_ |
1789962461952081920 |