Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions.
The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montre...
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/301379 2023-07-30T03:58:32+02:00 Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. Dhomse, S S Feng, W Montzka, S A Hossaini, R Keeble, J Pyle, J A Daniel, J S Chipperfield, M P 2020-01-28T02:37:55Z application/pdf https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.48460 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/301379 eng eng doi:10.17863/CAM.48460 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/301379 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ essn: 2041-1723 nlmid: 101528555 Article 2020 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.48460 2023-07-10T22:19:05Z The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr-1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr-1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcam |
language |
English |
description |
The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr-1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr-1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dhomse, S S Feng, W Montzka, S A Hossaini, R Keeble, J Pyle, J A Daniel, J S Chipperfield, M P |
spellingShingle |
Dhomse, S S Feng, W Montzka, S A Hossaini, R Keeble, J Pyle, J A Daniel, J S Chipperfield, M P Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
author_facet |
Dhomse, S S Feng, W Montzka, S A Hossaini, R Keeble, J Pyle, J A Daniel, J S Chipperfield, M P |
author_sort |
Dhomse, S S |
title |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
title_short |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
title_full |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
title_fullStr |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions. |
title_sort |
delay in recovery of the antarctic ozone hole from unexpected cfc-11 emissions. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.48460 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/301379 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
essn: 2041-1723 nlmid: 101528555 |
op_relation |
doi:10.17863/CAM.48460 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/301379 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.48460 |
_version_ |
1772821316365189120 |