The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model
A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. T...
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Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/279685 2023-07-30T04:03:38+02:00 The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model Pickett, Mark 2009-10-02 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.27054 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685 en eng Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge Scott Polar Research Institute University of Cambridge doi:10.17863/CAM.27054 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685 All Rights Reserved https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/ Thesis Masters Master of Philosophy (MPhil) 2009 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.27054 2023-07-10T22:01:27Z A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position. Master Thesis glacier Iceland Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivcam |
language |
English |
description |
A dynamic glacier flowline model is coupled to a degree-day mass balance model with the purpose of modelling the response of Hagafellsjökull vestari glacier to future climate change scenarios. The degree-day mass balance model is calibrated using mass balance measurements for the period 1997-2007. The temperature and precipitation input for the calibration is provided by a combination of ERA-40 reanalysis data and local weather station records. The calibrated model shows good agreement with the measured mass balances (r2 = 0.95, RMSE = 0.68 m w.e.). The flowline model is then calibrated against the 2007 surface profile extracted from a DEM constructed from LiDAR data. During calibration the model is run from 1997 to 2007 with the mass balance input provided by the calibrated degree-day model. A number of changes had to be made to the model in order to achieve a good fit with the reference profile. These included a parameterisation of the basal mechanisms of movement (i.e. sliding and deformation of the bed) which was forced by the calculation of water flux at the base; and the introduction of a uniform basal melt rate. The calibrated model calculates the 2007 ice surface profile with an RMSE of 4.41 m. The need to introduce a basal melt rate of 0.8 m yr-1 suggests the presence under the glacier of a significant source of geothermal energy. A range of climate scenarios are imposed on the finalised model to predict the glacier’s behaviour between 2007 and 2109. In the ‘worst-case’ scenario the glacier will lose almost 80% of the 2007 ice volume over the next century. If there is no future climate change relative to the 1978-2007 30-year averages for temperature and precipitation, by 2109 the glacier will lose 30% of the 2007 ice volume and the glacier front will retreat by just over 5 km from its 2007 position. |
format |
Master Thesis |
author |
Pickett, Mark |
spellingShingle |
Pickett, Mark The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
author_facet |
Pickett, Mark |
author_sort |
Pickett, Mark |
title |
The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
title_short |
The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
title_full |
The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
title_fullStr |
The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
title_full_unstemmed |
The response of Hagafellsjökull Vestari glacier, Iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
title_sort |
response of hagafellsjökull vestari glacier, iceland, to future climate scenarios computed with a dynamic glacier flowline model coupled to a degree-day mass balance model |
publisher |
Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.27054 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685 |
genre |
glacier Iceland |
genre_facet |
glacier Iceland |
op_relation |
doi:10.17863/CAM.27054 https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279685 |
op_rights |
All Rights Reserved https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.27054 |
_version_ |
1772814677602992128 |