Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity
Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the size of the storms themselves. One strategy that has been adopted to circumvent...
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ftunivcam:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/279626 2024-01-14T10:08:57+01:00 Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity Baudouin, JP Caron, LP Boudreault, M 2019 application/pdf https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279626 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.26996 eng eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4352-7 Climate Dynamics https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279626 doi:10.17863/CAM.26996 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Tropical cyclones Hurricanes North Atlantic Downscaling Storms Tracks El Nino Southern Oscillation Article 2019 ftunivcam https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.26996 2023-12-21T23:27:48Z Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the size of the storms themselves. One strategy that has been adopted to circumvent this limitation is through the use of a hybrid downscaling technique, wherein a large set of synthetic tracks are created by seeding disturbances in the large-scale environment. Here, we evaluate the ability of this technique at reproducing many of the characteristics of the recent North Atlantic hurricane activity as well as its sensitivity to the choice of the reanalysis dataset used as boundary conditions. In particular, we show that the geographical and intensity distributions are well reproduced, but that the technique has difficulty capturing the large difference in activity observed between the most recent active and quiescent phase. Although the signal is somewhat reduced compared to observation, the technique also detects a significant decrease in the intensification rate of hurricanes near the coastal U.S. during the active phase compared to the quiescent phase. Finally, the influence of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation on hurricane activity is generally well captured as well, but the technique fails to reproduce the increase in activity over the western part of the basin during Modoki El Niños. Ministerio de Economa y Competitividad (MINECO; Project GL2014-55764-R) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
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Open Polar |
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Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
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ftunivcam |
language |
English |
topic |
Tropical cyclones Hurricanes North Atlantic Downscaling Storms Tracks El Nino Southern Oscillation |
spellingShingle |
Tropical cyclones Hurricanes North Atlantic Downscaling Storms Tracks El Nino Southern Oscillation Baudouin, JP Caron, LP Boudreault, M Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
topic_facet |
Tropical cyclones Hurricanes North Atlantic Downscaling Storms Tracks El Nino Southern Oscillation |
description |
Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the size of the storms themselves. One strategy that has been adopted to circumvent this limitation is through the use of a hybrid downscaling technique, wherein a large set of synthetic tracks are created by seeding disturbances in the large-scale environment. Here, we evaluate the ability of this technique at reproducing many of the characteristics of the recent North Atlantic hurricane activity as well as its sensitivity to the choice of the reanalysis dataset used as boundary conditions. In particular, we show that the geographical and intensity distributions are well reproduced, but that the technique has difficulty capturing the large difference in activity observed between the most recent active and quiescent phase. Although the signal is somewhat reduced compared to observation, the technique also detects a significant decrease in the intensification rate of hurricanes near the coastal U.S. during the active phase compared to the quiescent phase. Finally, the influence of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation on hurricane activity is generally well captured as well, but the technique fails to reproduce the increase in activity over the western part of the basin during Modoki El Niños. Ministerio de Economa y Competitividad (MINECO; Project GL2014-55764-R) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baudouin, JP Caron, LP Boudreault, M |
author_facet |
Baudouin, JP Caron, LP Boudreault, M |
author_sort |
Baudouin, JP |
title |
Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
title_short |
Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
title_full |
Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
title_fullStr |
Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity |
title_sort |
impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled atlantic hurricane activity |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279626 https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.26996 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279626 doi:10.17863/CAM.26996 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.26996 |
_version_ |
1788063392938852352 |