Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble
Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/377568 2024-09-30T14:24:26+00:00 Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble Seroussi, Helene Pelle, Tyler Lipscomb, William H. Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Albrecht, Torsten Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge Asay‐Davis, Xylar Barre, Jean‐Baptiste Berends, Constantijn J. Bernales, Jorge Blasco Navarro, Javier Caillet, Justine Chandler, David Coulon, Violaine Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Garbe, Julius Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien Gladstone, Rupert R.M. Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas Greve, Ralf Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Han, Holly Kyeore Hillebrand, Trevor Hoffman, Matthew J. Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Klose, Ann Kristin Langebroek, Petra Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Mathiot, Pierre Montoya, Marisa Morlighem, Mathieu Nowicki, Sophie Pattyn, Frank Payne, Antony J. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Robinson, Alexander Saraste, Leopekka Simon, Erika G. Sun, Sainan Twarog, Jake Trusel, Luke D. Urruty, Benoit Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S W Wang, Yu Zhao, Chen Zwinger, Thomas 2024-09-01 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/377568 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/377568/3/Seroussi2024_EarthsFuture.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.1029/2024EF004561 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/377568/3/Seroussi2024_EarthsFuture.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/377568 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth's future, 12 (9 Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2024 ftunivbruxelles 2024-09-06T00:00:19Z Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections. info:eu-repo/semantics/published Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles |
spellingShingle |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles Seroussi, Helene Pelle, Tyler Lipscomb, William H. Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Albrecht, Torsten Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge Asay‐Davis, Xylar Barre, Jean‐Baptiste Berends, Constantijn J. Bernales, Jorge Blasco Navarro, Javier Caillet, Justine Chandler, David Coulon, Violaine Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Garbe, Julius Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien Gladstone, Rupert R.M. Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas Greve, Ralf Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Han, Holly Kyeore Hillebrand, Trevor Hoffman, Matthew J. Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Klose, Ann Kristin Langebroek, Petra Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Mathiot, Pierre Montoya, Marisa Morlighem, Mathieu Nowicki, Sophie Pattyn, Frank Payne, Antony J. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Robinson, Alexander Saraste, Leopekka Simon, Erika G. Sun, Sainan Twarog, Jake Trusel, Luke D. Urruty, Benoit Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S W Wang, Yu Zhao, Chen Zwinger, Thomas Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
topic_facet |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles |
description |
Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections. info:eu-repo/semantics/published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, Helene Pelle, Tyler Lipscomb, William H. Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Albrecht, Torsten Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge Asay‐Davis, Xylar Barre, Jean‐Baptiste Berends, Constantijn J. Bernales, Jorge Blasco Navarro, Javier Caillet, Justine Chandler, David Coulon, Violaine Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Garbe, Julius Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien Gladstone, Rupert R.M. Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas Greve, Ralf Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Han, Holly Kyeore Hillebrand, Trevor Hoffman, Matthew J. Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Klose, Ann Kristin Langebroek, Petra Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Mathiot, Pierre Montoya, Marisa Morlighem, Mathieu Nowicki, Sophie Pattyn, Frank Payne, Antony J. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Robinson, Alexander Saraste, Leopekka Simon, Erika G. Sun, Sainan Twarog, Jake Trusel, Luke D. Urruty, Benoit Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S W Wang, Yu Zhao, Chen Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Seroussi, Helene Pelle, Tyler Lipscomb, William H. Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Albrecht, Torsten Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge Asay‐Davis, Xylar Barre, Jean‐Baptiste Berends, Constantijn J. Bernales, Jorge Blasco Navarro, Javier Caillet, Justine Chandler, David Coulon, Violaine Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Garbe, Julius Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien Gladstone, Rupert R.M. Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas Greve, Ralf Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Han, Holly Kyeore Hillebrand, Trevor Hoffman, Matthew J. Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Klose, Ann Kristin Langebroek, Petra Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Mathiot, Pierre Montoya, Marisa Morlighem, Mathieu Nowicki, Sophie Pattyn, Frank Payne, Antony J. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Robinson, Alexander Saraste, Leopekka Simon, Erika G. Sun, Sainan Twarog, Jake Trusel, Luke D. Urruty, Benoit Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S W Wang, Yu Zhao, Chen Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Seroussi, Helene |
title |
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
title_short |
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
title_full |
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble |
title_sort |
evolution of the antarctic ice sheet over the next three centuries from an ismip6 model ensemble |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/377568 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/377568/3/Seroussi2024_EarthsFuture.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
op_source |
Earth's future, 12 (9 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.1029/2024EF004561 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/377568/3/Seroussi2024_EarthsFuture.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/377568 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1811640951330832384 |