Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions
Aim: In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanisti...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/353291/3/Guillaumot_et_al.pdf |
id |
ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 2024-04-28T07:57:36+00:00 Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas 2022-11-01 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/353291/3/Guillaumot_et_al.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.1111/ddi.13617 uri/info:scp/85138685545 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/353291/3/Guillaumot_et_al.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Diversity and distributions, 28 (11 Sciences exactes et naturelles Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2022 ftunivbruxelles 2024-04-10T00:12:21Z Aim: In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location: The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods: A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM (‘integrated SDM-DEB’) or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM (‘integrated Bayesian’ approach). Results: Results show higher performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with ‘classic’ and ‘integrated SDM-DEB’ methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions: The good performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling |
spellingShingle |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
topic_facet |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling |
description |
Aim: In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location: The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods: A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM (‘integrated SDM-DEB’) or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM (‘integrated Bayesian’ approach). Results: Results show higher performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with ‘classic’ and ‘integrated SDM-DEB’ methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions: The good performances of ‘integrated Bayesian’ approaches to estimate species potential ecological niche opens ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas |
author_facet |
Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas |
author_sort |
Guillaumot, Charlène |
title |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_short |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_full |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_fullStr |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
title_sort |
classic or hybrid? the performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of southern ocean species to changing environmental conditions |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/353291/3/Guillaumot_et_al.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Diversity and distributions, 28 (11 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.1111/ddi.13617 uri/info:scp/85138685545 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/353291/3/Guillaumot_et_al.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/353291 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1797589390342488064 |