Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions
The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is chal...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/314988 2024-04-28T07:58:05+00:00 Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions Arnould-Pétré, Margot Guillaumot, Charlène Danis, Bruno Féral, Jean-Pierre Saucède, Thomas 2020 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/314988 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/314988/3/1-s2.0-S030438002030418X-main.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109352 uri/info:pii/S030438002030418X uri/info:scp/85096697934 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/314988/3/1-s2.0-S030438002030418X-main.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/314988 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Ecological modelling, 440 Sciences exactes et naturelles Climate change Dynamic energy budget Ecological modelling Endemic echinoderm Individual-based model Kerguelen Model sensitivity info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2020 ftunivbruxelles 2024-04-10T00:14:40Z The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Climate change Dynamic energy budget Ecological modelling Endemic echinoderm Individual-based model Kerguelen Model sensitivity |
spellingShingle |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Climate change Dynamic energy budget Ecological modelling Endemic echinoderm Individual-based model Kerguelen Model sensitivity Arnould-Pétré, Margot Guillaumot, Charlène Danis, Bruno Féral, Jean-Pierre Saucède, Thomas Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
topic_facet |
Sciences exactes et naturelles Climate change Dynamic energy budget Ecological modelling Endemic echinoderm Individual-based model Kerguelen Model sensitivity |
description |
The Kerguelen Islands are part of the French Southern Territories, located at the limit of the Indian and Southern oceans. They are highly impacted by climate change, and coastal marine areas are particularly at risk. Assessing the responses of species and populations to environmental change is challenging in such areas for which ecological modelling can constitute a helpful approach. In the present work, a DEB-IBM model (Dynamic Energy Budget – Individual-Based Model) was generated to simulate and predict population dynamics in an endemic and common benthic species of shallow marine habitats of the Kerguelen Islands, the sea urchin Abatus cordatus. The model relies on a dynamic energy budget model (DEB) developed at the individual level. Upscaled to an individual-based population model (IBM), it then enables to model population dynamics through time as a result of individual physiological responses to environmental variations. The model was successfully built for a reference site to simulate the response of populations to variations in food resources and temperature. Then, it was implemented to model population dynamics at other sites and for the different IPCC climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Under present-day conditions, models predict a more determinant effect of food resources on population densities, and on juvenile densities in particular, relative to temperature. In contrast, simulations predict a sharp decline in population densities under conditions of IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 with a determinant effect of water warming leading to the extinction of most vulnerable populations after a 30-year simulation time due to high mortality levels associated with peaks of high temperatures. Such a dynamic model is here applied for the first time to a Southern Ocean benthic and brooding species and offers interesting prospects for Antarctic and sub-Antarctic biodiversity research. It could constitute a useful tool to support conservation studies in these remote regions where access and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arnould-Pétré, Margot Guillaumot, Charlène Danis, Bruno Féral, Jean-Pierre Saucède, Thomas |
author_facet |
Arnould-Pétré, Margot Guillaumot, Charlène Danis, Bruno Féral, Jean-Pierre Saucède, Thomas |
author_sort |
Arnould-Pétré, Margot |
title |
Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
title_short |
Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
title_full |
Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
title_fullStr |
Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the Kerguelen Plateau (Southern Ocean), Abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
title_sort |
individual-based model of population dynamics in a sea urchin of the kerguelen plateau (southern ocean), abatus cordatus, under changing environmental conditions |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/314988 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/314988/3/1-s2.0-S030438002030418X-main.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Ecological modelling, 440 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109352 uri/info:pii/S030438002030418X uri/info:scp/85096697934 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/314988/3/1-s2.0-S030438002030418X-main.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/314988 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1797567541985411072 |