The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat o...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 2024-04-28T08:21:11+00:00 The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin R.S. Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev van de Wal, Roderik S W Van den Broeke, Michiel 2020-09-01 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 uri/info:scp/85092315789 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 14 (9 Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2020 ftunivbruxelles 2024-04-10T00:12:21Z Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. SCOPUS: ar.j info:eu-repo/semantics/published Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles |
spellingShingle |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin R.S. Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev van de Wal, Roderik S W Van den Broeke, Michiel The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
topic_facet |
Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles |
description |
Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. SCOPUS: ar.j info:eu-repo/semantics/published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin R.S. Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev van de Wal, Roderik S W Van den Broeke, Michiel |
author_facet |
Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin R.S. Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev van de Wal, Roderik S W Van den Broeke, Michiel |
author_sort |
Goelzer, Heiko |
title |
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
title_short |
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
title_full |
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 |
title_sort |
future sea-level contribution of the greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ismip6 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 14 (9 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 uri/info:scp/85092315789 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1797583674680541184 |