The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat o...

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Main Authors: Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Anthony, Larour, Eric, Seroussi, Helene, Lipscomb, William H., Gregory, Jonathan, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Agosta, Cecile, Alexander, Patrick, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Little, Chris, Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Slater, Donald A., Smith, Robin R.S., Straneo, Fiamma, Tarasov, Lev, van de Wal, Roderik S W, Van den Broeke, Michiel
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243
https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf
id ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243
record_format openpolar
spelling ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 2024-04-28T08:21:11+00:00 The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 Goelzer, Heiko Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Anthony Larour, Eric Seroussi, Helene Lipscomb, William H. Gregory, Jonathan Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Little, Chris Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Quiquet, Aurelien Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Slater, Donald A. Smith, Robin R.S. Straneo, Fiamma Tarasov, Lev van de Wal, Roderik S W Van den Broeke, Michiel 2020-09-01 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 uri/info:scp/85092315789 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 14 (9 Glaciologie Sciences exactes et naturelles info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2020 ftunivbruxelles 2024-04-10T00:12:21Z Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. SCOPUS: ar.j info:eu-repo/semantics/published Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
institution Open Polar
collection DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
op_collection_id ftunivbruxelles
language English
topic Glaciologie
Sciences exactes et naturelles
spellingShingle Glaciologie
Sciences exactes et naturelles
Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cecile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin L
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le clec'h, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel P.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin R.S.
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
van de Wal, Roderik S W
Van den Broeke, Michiel
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
topic_facet Glaciologie
Sciences exactes et naturelles
description Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global meansea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arcticcontinues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increasedsurface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat ofmarine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble ofGreenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level risecontributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of theIce Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate thesea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climateforcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the twogreenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The resultsindicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in bothscenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largestmass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed bysurface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today.Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced controlexperiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. massloss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcingremained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertaintyexplains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty andocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm,respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, thelargest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding andimplementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheetwith the ocean. SCOPUS: ar.j info:eu-repo/semantics/published
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cecile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin L
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le clec'h, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel P.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin R.S.
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
van de Wal, Roderik S W
Van den Broeke, Michiel
author_facet Goelzer, Heiko
Nowicki, Sophie
Payne, Anthony
Larour, Eric
Seroussi, Helene
Lipscomb, William H.
Gregory, Jonathan
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Agosta, Cecile
Alexander, Patrick
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin L
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Le clec'h, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Little, Chris
Lowry, Daniel P.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Quiquet, Aurelien
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
Slater, Donald A.
Smith, Robin R.S.
Straneo, Fiamma
Tarasov, Lev
van de Wal, Roderik S W
Van den Broeke, Michiel
author_sort Goelzer, Heiko
title The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_short The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_fullStr The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full_unstemmed The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_sort future sea-level contribution of the greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ismip6
publishDate 2020
url http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243
https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf
genre Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
genre_facet Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, 14 (9
op_relation uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
uri/info:scp/85092315789
https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/313243/1/doi_296887.pdf
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/313243
op_rights 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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