Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Abstract. Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to becomethe major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of theAIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remainchallenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-shee...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/298453 2023-05-15T13:37:30+02:00 Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank 2019-04 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/298453 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/298453/1/doi_282097.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/298453/1/doi_282097.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/298453 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 13 (4 Glaciologie info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2019 ftunivbruxelles 2022-06-12T22:09:21Z Abstract. Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to becomethe major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of theAIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remainchallenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheetdynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basinswith retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit theability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we applyprobabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate theinfluence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty inatmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation,calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on thecontinental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over thenext millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise andgrounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis todetermine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that allinvestigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time,contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that thesensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and thecontribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty inthe projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanictemperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level riseprojections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % inRCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea levelis controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins,with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable WestAntarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty,the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the WestAntarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Antarctic Misi ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciologie |
spellingShingle |
Glaciologie Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
topic_facet |
Glaciologie |
description |
Abstract. Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to becomethe major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of theAIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remainchallenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheetdynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basinswith retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit theability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we applyprobabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate theinfluence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty inatmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation,calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on thecontinental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over thenext millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise andgrounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis todetermine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that allinvestigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time,contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that thesensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and thecontribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty inthe projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanictemperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level riseprojections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % inRCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea levelis controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins,with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable WestAntarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty,the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the WestAntarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank |
author_facet |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank |
author_sort |
Bulthuis, Kevin |
title |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
title_short |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
title_full |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
title_sort |
uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/298453 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/298453/1/doi_282097.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) |
geographic |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 13 (4 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/298453/1/doi_282097.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/298453 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766092636352937984 |