Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow mode...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/195551 2023-05-15T15:09:26+02:00 Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Jakob Nick, Faezeh Andersen, Morten Langer Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, Antony Shannon, Sarah 2013-08 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/195551 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/195551/3/doi_179178.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 uri/info:scp/84883311893 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/195551/3/doi_179178.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/195551 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Journal of Glaciology, 59 (216 Glaciologie atmospheric forcing climate forcing ice flow ice sheet climate modeling precipitation (climatology) regional climate sea ice sea level change three-dimensional modeling uncertainty analysis Arctic Greenland Greenland Ice Sheet info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2013 ftunivbruxelles 2022-06-12T20:33:22Z Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6-18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14-31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. info:eu-repo/semantics/published Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Sea ice DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Arctic Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciologie atmospheric forcing climate forcing ice flow ice sheet climate modeling precipitation (climatology) regional climate sea ice sea level change three-dimensional modeling uncertainty analysis Arctic Greenland Greenland Ice Sheet |
spellingShingle |
Glaciologie atmospheric forcing climate forcing ice flow ice sheet climate modeling precipitation (climatology) regional climate sea ice sea level change three-dimensional modeling uncertainty analysis Arctic Greenland Greenland Ice Sheet Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Jakob Nick, Faezeh Andersen, Morten Langer Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, Antony Shannon, Sarah Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
topic_facet |
Glaciologie atmospheric forcing climate forcing ice flow ice sheet climate modeling precipitation (climatology) regional climate sea ice sea level change three-dimensional modeling uncertainty analysis Arctic Greenland Greenland Ice Sheet |
description |
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6-18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14-31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. info:eu-repo/semantics/published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Jakob Nick, Faezeh Andersen, Morten Langer Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, Antony Shannon, Sarah |
author_facet |
Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Jakob Nick, Faezeh Andersen, Morten Langer Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, Antony Shannon, Sarah |
author_sort |
Goelzer, Heiko |
title |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_short |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_sort |
sensitivity of greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/195551 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/195551/3/doi_179178.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Sea ice |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, 59 (216 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 uri/info:scp/84883311893 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/195551/3/doi_179178.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/195551 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
_version_ |
1766340635089960960 |