Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise
Despite major recent efforts, marine ice sheet models aiming at predicting future mass loss from ice sheets still suffer from uncertainties with respect to grounding line migration. A recent model intercomparison provided tools to test how models treat grounding line dynamics in a three-dimensional...
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ftunivbruxelles:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/168994 2023-05-15T16:39:35+02:00 Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise Pattyn, Frank Durand, Gael 2013-08 1 full-text file(s): application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/168994 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/168994/3/168994.pdf en eng uri/info:doi/10.1002/grl.50824 uri/info:scp/84881623029 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/168994/3/168994.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/168994 1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Geophysical research letters, 40 (16 Sciences de la terre et du cosmos Géographie physique ice sheet modeling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ulb-repo/semantics/articlePeerReview info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/article 2013 ftunivbruxelles 2022-06-12T22:09:17Z Despite major recent efforts, marine ice sheet models aiming at predicting future mass loss from ice sheets still suffer from uncertainties with respect to grounding line migration. A recent model intercomparison provided tools to test how models treat grounding line dynamics in a three-dimensional setting. Here we use these tools to address to what extent differences in mass loss occur according to the approximation to the Stokes equations, describing marine ice sheet flow, used. We find that models that neglect components of vertical shearing in the force budget wrongly estimate ice sheet mass loss by ±50% over century time scales when compared to models that solve the full Stokes system of equations. Models that only include horizontal stresses also misrepresent velocities and ice shelf geometry, suggesting that interactions between the grounded ice sheet and the ocean will also be modeled incorrectly. Based on these findings, we strongly advise the use of high-order models to compute reliable projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Key Points All stresses in the ice sheet force budget are important at the grounding line Most models used (shallow-shelf or heuristic) wrongly estimate ice loss Full Stokes can be approximated using higher-order models. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. SCOPUS: ar.j FLWIN info:eu-repo/semantics/published Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Ice Shelf DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DI-fusion : dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbruxelles |
language |
English |
topic |
Sciences de la terre et du cosmos Géographie physique ice sheet modeling |
spellingShingle |
Sciences de la terre et du cosmos Géographie physique ice sheet modeling Pattyn, Frank Durand, Gael Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
topic_facet |
Sciences de la terre et du cosmos Géographie physique ice sheet modeling |
description |
Despite major recent efforts, marine ice sheet models aiming at predicting future mass loss from ice sheets still suffer from uncertainties with respect to grounding line migration. A recent model intercomparison provided tools to test how models treat grounding line dynamics in a three-dimensional setting. Here we use these tools to address to what extent differences in mass loss occur according to the approximation to the Stokes equations, describing marine ice sheet flow, used. We find that models that neglect components of vertical shearing in the force budget wrongly estimate ice sheet mass loss by ±50% over century time scales when compared to models that solve the full Stokes system of equations. Models that only include horizontal stresses also misrepresent velocities and ice shelf geometry, suggesting that interactions between the grounded ice sheet and the ocean will also be modeled incorrectly. Based on these findings, we strongly advise the use of high-order models to compute reliable projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Key Points All stresses in the ice sheet force budget are important at the grounding line Most models used (shallow-shelf or heuristic) wrongly estimate ice loss Full Stokes can be approximated using higher-order models. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. SCOPUS: ar.j FLWIN info:eu-repo/semantics/published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pattyn, Frank Durand, Gael |
author_facet |
Pattyn, Frank Durand, Gael |
author_sort |
Pattyn, Frank |
title |
Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
title_short |
Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
title_full |
Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
title_sort |
why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/168994 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/168994/3/168994.pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Geophysical research letters, 40 (16 |
op_relation |
uri/info:doi/10.1002/grl.50824 uri/info:scp/84881623029 https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/168994/3/168994.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/168994 |
op_rights |
1 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
_version_ |
1766029914913374208 |